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Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments

Author

Listed:
  • Luke J. Harrington

    (Victoria University of Wellington)

  • Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

    (Climate Analytics
    Humboldt University)

  • Friederike E. L. Otto

    (Imperial College London)

Abstract

High-level assessments of climate change impacts aggregate multiple perils into a common framework. This requires incorporating multiple dimensions of uncertainty. Here we propose a methodology to transparently assess these uncertainties within the ‘Reasons for Concern’ framework, using extreme heat as a case study. We quantitatively discriminate multiple dimensions of uncertainty, including future vulnerability and exposure to changing climate hazards. High risks from extreme heat materialise after 1.5–2 °C and very high risks between 2–3.5 °C of warming. Risks emerge earlier if global assessments were based on national risk thresholds, underscoring the need for stringent mitigation to limit future extreme heat risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Luke J. Harrington & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Friederike E. L. Otto, 2021. "Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-27491-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-27491-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Tessa Möller & Annika Ernest Högner & Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Samuel Bien & Niklas H. Kitzmann & Robin D. Lamboll & Joeri Rogelj & Jonathan F. Donges & Johan Rockström & Nico Wunderling, 2024. "Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Luke J. Harrington & Dave Frame, 2022. "Extreme heat in New Zealand: a synthesis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(1), pages 1-16, September.

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