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An emerging tropical cyclone–deadly heat compound hazard

Author

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  • T. Matthews

    (Loughborough University)

  • R. L. Wilby

    (Loughborough University)

  • C. Murphy

    (Maynooth University)

Abstract

Climate change may bring new hazards through novel combinations of extreme weather (compound events)1. Here we evaluate the possibility of dangerous heat following major tropical cyclones (TCs)—a combination with serious potential consequences given that mega-blackouts may follow powerful TCs2, and the heavy reliance on air conditioning3. We show that ‘TC–heat’ events are already possible along densely populated coastlines globally but, to date, only an estimated 1,000 people have been impacted. However, this number could rise markedly with over two million at risk under a storyline of the observed TCs recurring in a world 2 °C warmer than pre-industrial times. Using analogues as focusing events we show, for example, that if the catastrophic 1991 Bangladesh cyclone occurred with 2 °C global warming, there would be >70% chance of subsequent dangerous heat. This research highlights a gap in adaptation planning and a need to prepare for an emerging TC–heat compound hazard.

Suggested Citation

  • T. Matthews & R. L. Wilby & C. Murphy, 2019. "An emerging tropical cyclone–deadly heat compound hazard," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(8), pages 602-606, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:9:y:2019:i:8:d:10.1038_s41558-019-0525-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0525-6
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    Cited by:

    1. Kairui Feng & Min Ouyang & Ning Lin, 2022. "Tropical cyclone-blackout-heatwave compound hazard resilience in a changing climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Xiaoyan Sun & Xiaoyu Gao & Yali Luo & Wai-Kin Wong & Haiming Xu, 2022. "A Comparative Analysis of Characteristics and Synoptic Backgrounds of Extreme Heat Events over Two Urban Agglomerations in Southeast China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Emanuele Bevacqua & Laura Suarez-Gutierrez & Aglaé Jézéquel & Flavio Lehner & Mathieu Vrac & Pascal Yiou & Jakob Zscheischler, 2023. "Advancing research on compound weather and climate events via large ensemble model simulations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Kong, Xiangfei & Fu, Ying & Yuan, Jianjuan, 2023. "Novel flexible phase change materials with high emissivity, low thermal conductivity and mechanically robust for thermal management in outdoor environment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).
    5. Mo Wang & Zijing Chen & Dongqing Zhang & Ming Liu & Haojun Yuan & Biyi Chen & Qiuyi Rao & Shiqi Zhou & Yuankai Wang & Jianjun Li & Chengliang Fan & Soon Keat Tan, 2024. "Changes in Concurrent Meteorological Extremes of Rainfall and Heat under Divergent Climatic Trajectories in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-17, March.

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