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Leveraging biogenic resources to achieve global plastic decarbonization by 2050

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  • Elisabeth Van Roijen

    (University of California)

  • Sabbie A. Miller

    (University of California)

Abstract

There is a rising urgency to decarbonize plastic production given its high carbon footprint and rapid growth in demand. Here, we highlight pathways for carbon uptake and temporary storage (i.e., net-negative greenhouse gas emissions) for plastics on a global scale by 2050. We focus on bio-based plastics and consider potential market replacement, renewable energy integration, and waste management practices. Our analysis reveals that achieving net-negative emissions requires high levels of all three strategies. For example, reaching 60% bio-based plastics still requires 100% renewable energy and 90% recycling, while 40% recycling requires 90% bio-based plastics with 100% renewable energy. Maximizing all three variables could store up to 270 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents by 2050. By 2030, annual emissions from plastics could be reduced by 58% compared to current levels by substituting 41% of petroleum-based plastics with bio-based alternatives, transitioning to 100% renewable energy, and recycling 27% of plastics at end-of-life.

Suggested Citation

  • Elisabeth Van Roijen & Sabbie A. Miller, 2025. "Leveraging biogenic resources to achieve global plastic decarbonization by 2050," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-62877-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-62877-6
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