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High resolution assessment of air quality and health in Europe under different climate mitigation scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Enrico Pisoni

    (Joint Research Centre)

  • Stefano Zauli-Sajani

    (Joint Research Centre)

  • Claudio A. Belis

    (Joint Research Centre)

  • Sasha Khomenko

    (Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal)
    Universitat Pompeu Fabra (UPF)
    CIBER Epidemiologıa y Salud Publica (CIBERESP))

  • Philippe Thunis

    (Joint Research Centre)

  • Corrado Motta

    (Arcadia SIT
    University of Trento)

  • Rita Dingenen

    (Joint Research Centre)

  • Bertrand Bessagnet

    (Joint Research Centre)

  • Fabio Monforti-Ferrario

    (Joint Research Centre)

  • Joachim Maes

    (Directorate-General for Regional and Urban Policy)

  • Luc Feyen

    (Joint Research Centre)

Abstract

Climate change mitigation policies lower greenhouse gas emissions and generally reduce fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations, hereby bringing health co-benefits. Yet, the spatial and distributional air quality co-benefits in Europe of such policies are not fully understood. Here, We quantify premature mortality from air pollution in 1366 regions of Europe for different scenarios obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. We model PM2.5 concentrations at high spatial resolution and then combine it with population data and regional age structure and total mortality, to calculate attributable deaths. We find that the share of the European population meeting WHO (World Health Organization) guideline value for PM2.5 could exceed 90% by 2100 under the most ambitious scenario, while less than 10% under the least ambitious one. Corresponding premature deaths in Europe would total 67,000 (95% CI: 13,000–141,000) per year by the end of the century compared to 282,000 (95% CI: 202,000–364,000).

Suggested Citation

  • Enrico Pisoni & Stefano Zauli-Sajani & Claudio A. Belis & Sasha Khomenko & Philippe Thunis & Corrado Motta & Rita Dingenen & Bertrand Bessagnet & Fabio Monforti-Ferrario & Joachim Maes & Luc Feyen, 2025. "High resolution assessment of air quality and health in Europe under different climate mitigation scenarios," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-60449-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-60449-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Huanbi Yue & Chunyang He & Qingxu Huang & Da Zhang & Peijun Shi & Enayat A. Moallemi & Fangjin Xu & Yang Yang & Xin Qi & Qun Ma & Brett A. Bryan, 2024. "Substantially reducing global PM2.5-related deaths under SDG3.9 requires better air pollution control and healthcare," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Hui Yang & Xinyuan Huang & Daniel M. Westervelt & Larry Horowitz & Wei Peng, 2023. "Socio-demographic factors shaping the future global health burden from air pollution," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 58-68, January.
    3. Mara, Thierry A. & Becker, William E., 2021. "Polynomial chaos expansion for sensitivity analysis of model output with dependent inputs," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    4. Fujimori, S. & Kainuma, M. & Masui, T. & Hasegawa, T. & Dai, H., 2014. "The effectiveness of energy service demand reduction: A scenario analysis of global climate change mitigation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 379-391.
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