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Socio-demographic factors shaping the future global health burden from air pollution

Author

Listed:
  • Hui Yang

    (Penn State University)

  • Xinyuan Huang

    (Penn State University)

  • Daniel M. Westervelt

    (Columbia University)

  • Larry Horowitz

    (NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

  • Wei Peng

    (Penn State University
    Penn State University)

Abstract

Exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM2.5) currently contributes to millions of global premature deaths every year. Here, we assess the pollution and health futures in five 2015–2100 scenarios using an integrated modelling framework. On the basis of a global Earth System Model (GFDL-ESM4.1), we find lower ambient PM2.5 concentrations, both globally and regionally, in future scenarios that are less fossil fuel-dependent and with more stringent pollution controls. Across the five scenarios, the global cumulative PM2.5-related deaths vary by a factor of two. However, the projected deaths are not necessarily lower in scenarios with less warming or cleaner air. This is because while reducing PM2.5 pollution lowers the exposure level, increasing the size of vulnerable populations can significantly increase PM2.5-related deaths. For most countries, we find that changes in socio-demographic factors (for example, ageing and declining baseline mortality rates) play a more important role than the exposure level in shaping future health burden.

Suggested Citation

  • Hui Yang & Xinyuan Huang & Daniel M. Westervelt & Larry Horowitz & Wei Peng, 2023. "Socio-demographic factors shaping the future global health burden from air pollution," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 58-68, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natsus:v:6:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41893-022-00976-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41893-022-00976-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Pinya Wang & Yang Yang & Daokai Xue & Lili Ren & Jianping Tang & L. Ruby Leung & Hong Liao, 2023. "Aerosols overtake greenhouse gases causing a warmer climate and more weather extremes toward carbon neutrality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Ying Pan & Ke Shi & Zhongxu Zhao & Yao Li & Junxi Wu, 2024. "The effects of China’s poverty eradication program on sustainability and inequality," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, December.

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