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Evaluation of global outbreak surveillance performance for high pathogenicity avian influenza and African swine fever

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  • Younjung Kim

    (Institut Pierre Louis d’Épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP)
    University of Sussex)

  • Guillaume Fournié

    (Royal Veterinary College
    VetAgro Sup
    VetAgro Sup)

  • Paolo Tizzani

    (World Organisation for Animal Health)

  • Gregorio Torres

    (World Organisation for Animal Health)

  • Raphaëlle Métras

    (Institut Pierre Louis d’Épidémiologie et de Santé Publique (IPLESP))

  • Dirk Pfeiffer

    (Royal Veterinary College
    City University of Hong Kong)

  • Pierre Nouvellet

    (University of Sussex)

Abstract

Timely outbreak notification is critical for successful disease control. For high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) and African swine fever (ASF), surveillance performance within and across countries remains largely unknown, despite their continued global spread. We assessed surveillance performance in reporting HPAI outbreaks (2020–2023) and ASF outbreaks (2016–2023) amongst World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) member countries/territories using WOAH outbreak notification data. We employed a modelling approach using the number of fatalities reported at initial notification as a performance measure, where fewer fatalities relative to the size of the affected premise—after accounting for other premise-level and country-level factors—were assumed to indicate better performance. For both diseases, fatalities were strongly associated with factors including country/territory, number of susceptible animals, premise type (commercial farms, backyard farms, and villages), season, and spatiotemporal outbreak clustering. The number of susceptible animals and country/territory explained the most variance in fatalities. While a few countries/territories appeared to perform exceptionally well or poorly, significant overdispersion suggested substantial heterogeneities within countries/territories after controlling for other factors. Our findings highlight the need for more targeted national and global efforts to strengthen animal health surveillance capacities.

Suggested Citation

  • Younjung Kim & Guillaume Fournié & Paolo Tizzani & Gregorio Torres & Raphaëlle Métras & Dirk Pfeiffer & Pierre Nouvellet, 2025. "Evaluation of global outbreak surveillance performance for high pathogenicity avian influenza and African swine fever," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-13, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-60094-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-60094-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cameron, A Colin & Windmeijer, Frank A G, 1996. "R-Squared Measures for Count Data Regression Models with Applications to Health-Care Utilization," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(2), pages 209-220, April.
    2. Carol Y. Lin, 2008. "Modeling Infectious Diseases in Humans and Animals by KEELING, M. J. and ROHANI, P," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 993-993, September.
    3. Younjung Kim & Guillaume Fournié & Paolo Tizzani & Gregorio Torres & Raphaëlle Métras & Dirk Pfeiffer & Pierre Nouvellet, 2025. "Evaluation of global outbreak surveillance performance for high pathogenicity avian influenza and African swine fever," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-13, December.
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    1. Younjung Kim & Guillaume Fournié & Paolo Tizzani & Gregorio Torres & Raphaëlle Métras & Dirk Pfeiffer & Pierre Nouvellet, 2025. "Evaluation of global outbreak surveillance performance for high pathogenicity avian influenza and African swine fever," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-13, December.

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