IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v16y2025i1d10.1038_s41467-025-59275-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Transitioning to healthy and sustainable diets has higher environmental and affordability trade-offs for emerging and developing economies

Author

Listed:
  • Zhongci Deng

    (Huazhong Agricultural University)

  • Yuanchao Hu

    (Wuhan University)

  • Xiaoxi Wang

    (Zhejiang University
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Cai Li

    (Huazhong Agricultural University
    Deakin University)

  • Jingyu Wang

    (Huazhong Agricultural University)

  • Pan He

    (Cardiff University)

  • Zhen Wang

    (Huazhong Agricultural University
    Huazhong Agricultural University)

  • Brett A. Bryan

    (Deakin University)

Abstract

Switching to alternative global diets offers established benefits, but the challenges and opportunities for individual countries during and after the transition remain unassessed. In this study, we project changes in water use, dietary quality, and food affordability under four dietary scenarios (including Mediterranean diet, the EAT-Lancet diet, the Healthy US-Style diet, and Vegetarian diet), assessing the potential implications at the country level from 2020 to 2070. Here, we show that by 2070, transitioning to healthy and sustainable diets can improve dietary quality by 30.29 – 45.43%, with all countries reducing water use (1.21 – 14.73%) and increasing food affordability (9.29 – 63.23%). However, in the initial phases, increased food demand escalated water use and worsened food affordability, especially in emerging and developing economies, with the maximum average deterioration being 2.62% and 13.06%, respectively. These highlight the need for long-term planning and financial support to ensure successful global transitions.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhongci Deng & Yuanchao Hu & Xiaoxi Wang & Cai Li & Jingyu Wang & Pan He & Zhen Wang & Brett A. Bryan, 2025. "Transitioning to healthy and sustainable diets has higher environmental and affordability trade-offs for emerging and developing economies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-59275-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-59275-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-59275-3
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-025-59275-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhang, Bangbang & Li, Xian & Chen, Haibin & Niu, Wenhao & Kong, Xiangbin & Yu, Qiang & Zhao, Minjuan & Xia, Xianli, 2022. "Identifying opportunities to close yield gaps in China by use of certificated cultivars to estimate potential productivity," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    2. Feng, Kuishuang & Hubacek, Klaus & Liu, Yu & Marchán, Estefanía & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien, 2018. "Managing the distributional effects of energy taxes and subsidy removal in Latin America and the Caribbean," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 424-436.
    3. Patrick José Jeetze & Isabelle Weindl & Justin Andrew Johnson & Pasquale Borrelli & Panos Panagos & Edna J. Molina Bacca & Kristine Karstens & Florian Humpenöder & Jan Philipp Dietrich & Sara Minoli &, 2023. "Projected landscape-scale repercussions of global action for climate and biodiversity protection," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    4. Weifeng Zhang & Guoxin Cao & Xiaolin Li & Hongyan Zhang & Chong Wang & Quanqing Liu & Xinping Chen & Zhenling Cui & Jianbo Shen & Rongfeng Jiang & Guohua Mi & Yuxin Miao & Fusuo Zhang & Zhengxia Dou, 2016. "Closing yield gaps in China by empowering smallholder farmers," Nature, Nature, vol. 537(7622), pages 671-674, September.
    5. Dietrich, Jan Philipp & Schmitz, Christoph & Lotze-Campen, Hermann & Popp, Alexander & Müller, Christoph, 2014. "Forecasting technological change in agriculture—An endogenous implementation in a global land use model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 236-249.
    6. Yue Qin & Nathaniel D. Mueller & Stefan Siebert & Robert B. Jackson & Amir AghaKouchak & Julie B. Zimmerman & Dan Tong & Chaopeng Hong & Steven J. Davis, 2019. "Flexibility and intensity of global water use," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(6), pages 515-523, June.
    7. Dieter Gerten & Vera Heck & Jonas Jägermeyr & Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Ingo Fetzer & Mika Jalava & Matti Kummu & Wolfgang Lucht & Johan Rockström & Sibyll Schaphoff & Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, 2020. "Feeding ten billion people is possible within four terrestrial planetary boundaries," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 3(3), pages 200-208, March.
    8. Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Susanne Rolinski & Anne Biewald & Isabelle Weindl & Alexander Popp & Hermann Lotze-Campen, 2015. "Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21 st Century," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(11), pages 1-27, November.
    9. Yue Qin & Nathaniel D. Mueller & Stefan Siebert & Robert B. Jackson & Amir AghaKouchak & Julie B. Zimmerman & Dan Tong & Chaopeng Hong & Steven J. Davis, 2019. "Author Correction: Flexibility and intensity of global water use," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(7), pages 643-643, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, X. & Dietrich, J.P. & Lotze-Campen, H. & Biewald, A. & Munson, T.S. & Muller, C., 2018. "Trading More Food in the Context of High-end Climate Change: Implications for Land Displacement through Agricultural Trade," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 276997, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Elke Stehfest & Willem-Jan Zeist & Hugo Valin & Petr Havlik & Alexander Popp & Page Kyle & Andrzej Tabeau & Daniel Mason-D’Croz & Tomoko Hasegawa & Benjamin L. Bodirsky & Katherine Calvin & Jonathan C, 2019. "Key determinants of global land-use projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Hans van Meijl & Petr Havlik & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Elke Stehfest & Peter Witzke & Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Benjamin Bodirsky & Michiel van Dijk & Jonathan Doelman & Thomas Fellmann & Florian Humpe, 2017. "Challenges of Global Agriculture in a Climate Change Context by 2050 (AgCLIM50)," JRC Research Reports JRC106835, Joint Research Centre.
    4. Laluet, Pierre & Olivera-Guerra, Luis Enrique & Altés, Víctor & Paolini, Giovanni & Ouaadi, Nadia & Rivalland, Vincent & Jarlan, Lionel & Villar, Josep Maria & Merlin, Olivier, 2024. "Retrieving the irrigation actually applied at district scale: Assimilating high-resolution Sentinel-1-derived soil moisture data into a FAO-56-based model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    5. Wang, Xiaoxi & Dietrich, Jan P. & Lotze-Campen, Hermann & Biewald, Anne & Stevanović, Miodrag & Bodirsky, Benjamin L. & Brümmer, Bernhard & Popp, Alexander, 2020. "Beyond land-use intensity: Assessing future global crop productivity growth under different socioeconomic pathways," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    6. Shen, Yan & Puig-Bargués, Jaume & Li, Mengyao & Xiao, Yang & Li, Qiang & Li, Yunkai, 2022. "Physical, chemical and biological emitter clogging behaviors in drip irrigation systems using high-sediment loaded water," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    7. Mae A. Davenport & Amelia Kreiter & Kate A. Brauman & Bonnie Keeler & J. Arbuckle & Vasudha Sharma & Amit Pradhananga & Ryan Noe, 2022. "An experiential model of drought risk and future irrigation behaviors among central Minnesota farmers," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(1), pages 1-16, March.
    8. Kelley, Jason & Olson, Bailey, 2022. "Interannual variability of water productivity on the Eastern Snake Plain in Idaho, United States," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    9. Eekhout, J.P.C. & Delsman, I. & Baartman, J.E.M. & van Eupen, M. & van Haren, C. & Contreras, S. & Martínez-López, J. & de Vente, J., 2024. "How future changes in irrigation water supply and demand affect water security in a Mediterranean catchment," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 297(C).
    10. Hou, Peng & Liu, Lu & Tahir, Muhammad & Li, Yan & Wang, Xuejun & Shi, Ning & Xiao, Yang & Ma, Changjian & Li, Yunkai, 2024. "Effect of fertilization on emitter clogging in drip irrigation using high sediment water: Perspective of sediment discharge capacity," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    11. Hou, Peng & Ma, Changjian & Wang, Jia & Li, Yan & Zhang, Kai & Hou, Shance & Li, Jingzhi & Sun, Zeqiang & Xiao, Yang & Li, Yunkai, 2024. "Failure behavior of pressure compensating emitter under different operation pressures in drip irrigation systems," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 297(C).
    12. Koen De Vos & Charlotte Janssens & Liesbet Jacobs & Benjamin Campforts & Esther Boere & Marta Kozicka & David Leclère & Petr Havlík & Lisa-Marie Hemerijckx & Anton Van Rompaey & Miet Maertens & Gerard, 2024. "African food system and biodiversity mainly affected by urbanization via dietary shifts," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 7(7), pages 869-878, July.
    13. Missbach, Leonard & Steckel, Jan Christoph & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien, 2024. "Cash transfers in the context of carbon pricing reforms in Latin America and the Caribbean," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    14. Shuangshuang Fan & Yichao Li & William Mbanyele & Xiufeng Lai, 2025. "Determinants and Pathways for Inclusive Growth in China: Investigation Based on Artificial Intelligence (AI) Algorithm," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 65(3), pages 1231-1264, March.
    15. Aryal, Jeetendra P., 2022. "Contribution of Agriculture to Climate Change and Low-Emission Agricultural Development in Asia and the Pacific," ADBI Working Papers 1340, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    16. O. Borodina, S. Kyryziuk, V. Yarovyi, Yu. Ermoliev, T. Ermolieva, 2016. "Modeling local land uses under the global climate change," Economy and Forecasting, Valeriy Heyets, issue 1, pages 117-128.
    17. Marcinkowski, Paweł & Piniewski, Mikołaj, 2024. "Future changes in crop yield over Poland driven by climate change, increasing atmospheric CO2 and nitrogen stress," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    18. Shinichiro Fujimori & Tomoko Hasegawa & Volker Krey & Keywan Riahi & Christoph Bertram & Benjamin Leon Bodirsky & Valentina Bosetti & Jessica Callen & Jacques Després & Jonathan Doelman & Laurent Drou, 2019. "A multi-model assessment of food security implications of climate change mitigation," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(5), pages 386-396, May.
    19. Ethan Gordon & Federico Davila & Chris Riedy, 2022. "Transforming landscapes and mindscapes through regenerative agriculture," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 39(2), pages 809-826, June.
    20. Yuewen Huo & Songlin Ye & Zhou Wu & Fusuo Zhang & Guohua Mi, 2022. "Barriers to the Development of Agricultural Mechanization in the North and Northeast China Plains: A Farmer Survey," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-14, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-59275-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.