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Shifts in MJO behavior enhance predictability of subseasonal precipitation whiplashes

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  • Tat Fan Cheng

    (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
    University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa
    The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

  • Bin Wang

    (University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa
    University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa)

  • Fei Liu

    (Sun Yat-Sen University
    Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System Ministry of Education
    Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory)

  • Guosen Chen

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology)

  • Mengqian Lu

    (The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
    The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

Subseasonal precipitation whiplashes, marked by sudden shifts between dry and wet extremes, can disrupt ecosystems and human well-being. Predicting these events two to six weeks in advance is crucial for disaster management. Here, we show that the propagation diversity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)—a key source of subseasonal predictability—will alter under anthropogenic warming. This is evidenced by a 40% increase in fast-propagating events by the late 21st century. Fast-propagating MJOs may rise in a period as early as 2028–2063, increasing the global risk of precipitation whiplashes through teleconnections. We propose a heuristic framework diagnosing that MJO’s acceleration is primarily driven by enhanced atmospheric stabilization and El Niño-like sea surface warming. The expected rise in fast-propagating MJOs could improve the predictability of subseasonal weather whiplashes, offering critical lead time for disaster preparedness. Understanding these impending shifts is essential for enhancing subseasonal prediction capabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Tat Fan Cheng & Bin Wang & Fei Liu & Guosen Chen & Mengqian Lu, 2025. "Shifts in MJO behavior enhance predictability of subseasonal precipitation whiplashes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:16:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-025-58955-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-58955-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Cleland, 2013. "World Population Growth; Past, Present and Future," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 55(4), pages 543-554, August.
    2. Xuezhi Tan & Xinxin Wu & Zeqin Huang & Jianyu Fu & Xuejin Tan & Simin Deng & Yaxin Liu & Thian Yew Gan & Bingjun Liu, 2023. "Increasing global precipitation whiplash due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    3. M. K. Roxy & Panini Dasgupta & Michael J. McPhaden & Tamaki Suematsu & Chidong Zhang & Daehyun Kim, 2019. "Twofold expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool warps the MJO life cycle," Nature, Nature, vol. 575(7784), pages 647-651, November.
    4. Eric D. Maloney & Ángel F. Adames & Hien X. Bui, 2019. "Madden–Julian oscillation changes under anthropogenic warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 26-33, January.
    5. Daniel L. Swain & Baird Langenbrunner & J. David Neelin & Alex Hall, 2018. "Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(5), pages 427-433, May.
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