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A regression-based approach to the CO2 airborne fraction

Author

Listed:
  • Mikkel Bennedsen

    (Aarhus University
    Aarhus University)

  • Eric Hillebrand

    (Aarhus University
    Aarhus University)

  • Siem Jan Koopman

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
    Tinbergen Institute)

Abstract

The global fraction of anthropogenically emitted carbon dioxide (CO2) that stays in the atmosphere, the CO2 airborne fraction, has been fluctuating around a constant value over the period 1959 to 2022. The consensus estimate of the airborne fraction is around 44%. In this study, we show that the conventional estimator of the airborne fraction, based on a ratio of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and CO2 emissions, suffers from a number of statistical deficiencies. We propose an alternative regression-based estimator of the airborne fraction that does not suffer from these deficiencies. Our empirical analysis leads to an estimate of the airborne fraction over 1959–2022 of 47.0% (± 1.1%; 1σ), implying a higher, and better constrained, estimate than the current consensus. Using climate model output, we show that a regression-based approach provides sensible estimates of the airborne fraction, also in future scenarios where emissions are at or near zero.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikkel Bennedsen & Eric Hillebrand & Siem Jan Koopman, 2024. "A regression-based approach to the CO2 airborne fraction," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-52728-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-52728-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178, Decembrie.
    2. A. P. Ballantyne & C. B. Alden & J. B. Miller & P. P. Tans & J. W. C. White, 2012. "Increase in observed net carbon dioxide uptake by land and oceans during the past 50 years," Nature, Nature, vol. 488(7409), pages 70-72, August.
    3. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    4. Trevor F Keenan & I. Colin Prentice & Josep G Canadell & Christopher A Williams & Han Wang & Michael Raupach & G. James Collatz, 2016. "Recent pause in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 due to enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. M. R. Raupach & M. Gloor & J. L. Sarmiento & J. G. Canadell & T. L. Frölicher & T. Gasser & R. A. Houghton & C. Le Quéré & C. M. Trudinger, 2014. "The declining uptake rate of atmospheric CO2 by land and ocean sinks," Post-Print hal-01239783, HAL.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mikkel Bennedsen & Eric Hillebrand & Morten {O}rregaard Nielsen, 2024. "The Global Carbon Budget as a cointegrated system," Papers 2412.09226, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2025.

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