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A potential explanation for the global increase in tropical cyclone rapid intensification

Author

Listed:
  • Kieran Bhatia

    (Guy Carpenter)

  • Alexander Baker

    (University of Reading, Reading)

  • Wenchang Yang

    (Princeton University)

  • Gabriel Vecchi

    (Princeton University
    Princeton University)

  • Thomas Knutson

    (NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

  • Hiroyuki Murakami

    (NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

  • James Kossin

    (The Climate Service, an S&P Global company)

  • Kevin Hodges

    (University of Reading, Reading)

  • Keith Dixon

    (NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

  • Benjamin Bronselaer

    (Englehart Commodities Trading Partners)

  • Carolyn Whitlock

    (Princeton, and Engility Inc.)

Abstract

Tropical cyclone rapid intensification events often cause destructive hurricane landfalls because they are associated with the strongest storms and forecasts with the highest errors. Multi-decade observational datasets of tropical cyclone behavior have recently enabled documentation of upward trends in tropical cyclone rapid intensification in several basins. However, a robust anthropogenic signal in global intensification trends and the physical drivers of intensification trends have yet to be identified. To address these knowledge gaps, here we compare the observed trends in intensification and tropical cyclone environmental parameters to simulated natural variability in a high-resolution global climate model. In multiple basins and the global dataset, we detect a significant increase in intensification rates with a positive contribution from anthropogenic forcing. Furthermore, thermodynamic environments around tropical cyclones have become more favorable for intensification, and climate models show anthropogenic warming has significantly increased the probability of these changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Kieran Bhatia & Alexander Baker & Wenchang Yang & Gabriel Vecchi & Thomas Knutson & Hiroyuki Murakami & James Kossin & Kevin Hodges & Keith Dixon & Benjamin Bronselaer & Carolyn Whitlock, 2022. "A potential explanation for the global increase in tropical cyclone rapid intensification," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-34321-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-34321-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gabriel A. Vecchi & Brian J. Soden, 2007. "Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity," Nature, Nature, vol. 450(7172), pages 1066-1070, December.
    2. James P. Kossin & Kerry A. Emanuel & Gabriel A. Vecchi, 2014. "The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity," Nature, Nature, vol. 509(7500), pages 349-352, May.
    3. Kieran T. Bhatia & Gabriel A. Vecchi & Thomas R. Knutson & Hiroyuki Murakami & James Kossin & Keith W. Dixon & Carolyn E. Whitlock, 2019. "Author Correction: Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-1, December.
    4. Hiroyuki Murakami & Gabriel A. Vecchi & Seth Underwood, 2017. "Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(12), pages 885-889, December.
    5. Gabriel A. Vecchi & Christopher Landsea & Wei Zhang & Gabriele Villarini & Thomas Knutson, 2021. "Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    6. Kieran T. Bhatia & Gabriel A. Vecchi & Thomas R. Knutson & Hiroyuki Murakami & James Kossin & Keith W. Dixon & Carolyn E. Whitlock, 2019. "Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    7. Kieran T. Bhatia & Gabriel A. Vecchi & Thomas R. Knutson & Hiroyuki Murakami & James Kossin & Keith W. Dixon & Carolyn E. Whitlock, 2019. "Author Correction: Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-1, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yi Li & Youmin Tang & Shuai Wang & Ralf Toumi & Xiangzhou Song & Qiang Wang, 2023. "Recent increases in tropical cyclone rapid intensification events in global offshore regions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Sok Kuh Kang & Sung-Hun Kim & I.-I. Lin & Young-Hyang Park & Yumi Choi & Isaac Ginis & Joseph Cione & Ji Yun Shin & Eun Jin Kim & Kyeong Ok Kim & Hyoun Woo Kang & Jae-Hyoung Park & Jean-Raymond Bidlot, 2024. "The North Equatorial Current and rapid intensification of super typhoons," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.

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