Sustained freshening of Arabian Sea High Salinity Water induced by extreme precipitation events

In the northern Arabian Sea, high salinity levels are primarily sustained by year-round evaporation, driving the convective formation of Arabian Sea High Salinity Water (ASHSW) during the winter monsoon (November–February). Although precipitation has largely been discounted as a critical controlling mechanism for winter convection, recent years have seen a notable increase in extreme cyclones over the Arabian Sea, particularly in post-monsoon cyclones (September–December) since 2014. However, the extent to which these cyclone-induced freshwater inputs disrupt the region’s freshwater balance (evaporation – precipitation) and impact ASHSW formation remains unclear. Here, we present observational evidence supported by a suite of model simulation experiments, revealing a significant weakening in ASHSW formation triggered and sustained by extreme tropical cyclones. The addition of freshwater reduces the density of high-salinity water, augmenting stratification and disrupting the convective sinking process, ultimately limiting the depth of convective mixing. These findings underscore the profound implications of extreme cyclone-induced freshwater inputs.