IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v111y2022i2d10.1007_s11069-021-05116-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling of tropical cyclone activity over the North Indian Ocean using generalised additive model and machine learning techniques: role of Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation

Author

Listed:
  • Md Wahiduzzaman

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology)

  • Jing-Jia Luo

    (Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology)

Abstract

This study investigates the contribution of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) to the tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) and assesses the prediction skill of a statistical Generalised Additive Model (GAM) and two machine learning techniques—Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Regression (SVR). Joint Typhoon Warning Centre TC and BSISO1 Index data have been used for a period of 33-year (1981–2013). By considering eight phases of BSISO, prediction models have been developed using a kernel density estimation for the TC genesis, Euler integration step to fit the tracks, and a country mask approach for the landfall across the NIO rim countries. Result shows that GAM has the highest prediction skill compared to the RF and SVR. Westward and Northward moving TCs are controlled by the wind and the TC activities during BSISO phases which modulated by wind matched well against observations over the NIO. Distance calculation validation method is applied to assess the skill of models.

Suggested Citation

  • Md Wahiduzzaman & Jing-Jia Luo, 2022. "Modeling of tropical cyclone activity over the North Indian Ocean using generalised additive model and machine learning techniques: role of Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(2), pages 1801-1811, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:111:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-021-05116-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-05116-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-021-05116-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-021-05116-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. N. H. Saji & B. N. Goswami & P. N. Vinayachandran & T. Yamagata, 1999. "A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean," Nature, Nature, vol. 401(6751), pages 360-363, September.
    2. Amato T. Evan & James P. Kossin & Chul ‘Eddy’ Chung & V. Ramanathan, 2011. "Arabian Sea tropical cyclones intensified by emissions of black carbon and other aerosols," Nature, Nature, vol. 479(7371), pages 94-97, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. R. S. Akhila & J. Kuttippurath & R. Rahul & A. Chakraborty, 2022. "Genesis and simultaneous occurrences of the super cyclone Kyarr and extremely severe cyclone Maha in the Arabian Sea in October 2019," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(2), pages 1133-1150, September.
    2. Prasad G. Thoppil, 2025. "Sustained freshening of Arabian Sea High Salinity Water induced by extreme precipitation events," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Wenju Cai & Yi Liu & Xiaopei Lin & Ziguang Li & Ying Zhang & David Newth, 2024. "Nonlinear country-heterogenous impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on global economies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Weiqing Han & Lei Zhang & Gerald A. Meehl & Shoichiro Kido & Tomoki Tozuka & Yuanlong Li & Michael J. McPhaden & Aixue Hu & Anny Cazenave & Nan Rosenbloom & Gary Strand & B. Jason West & Wen Xing, 2022. "Sea level extremes and compounding marine heatwaves in coastal Indonesia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Nisa Anil & M. R. Ramesh Kumar & R. Sajeev & P. K. Saji, 2016. "Role of distinct flavours of IOD events on Indian summer monsoon," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(2), pages 1317-1326, June.
    6. Orpita U. Laz & Ataur Rahman & Taha B. M. J. Ouarda, 2025. "Trend and teleconnection analysis of temperature extremes in New South Wales, Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 121(4), pages 4559-4584, March.
    7. Akio Kitoh, 2007. "Variability of Indian monsoon-ENSO relationship in a 1000-year MRI-CGCM2.2 simulation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 42(2), pages 261-272, August.
    8. Iskhaq Iskandar & Deni Okta Lestari & Agus Dwi Saputra & Riza Yuliratno Setiawan & Anindya Wirasatriya & Raden Dwi Susanto & Wijaya Mardiansyah & Muhammad Irfan & Rozirwan & Joga Dharma Setiawan & Kun, 2022. "Extreme Positive Indian Ocean Dipole in 2019 and Its Impact on Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-15, November.
    9. Anni Arumsari Fitriany & Piotr J. Flatau & Khoirunurrofik Khoirunurrofik & Nelly Florida Riama, 2021. "Assessment on the Use of Meteorological and Social Media Information for Forest Fire Detection and Prediction in Riau, Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-13, October.
    10. Yadav Prasad Joshi & Eun-Hye Kim & Jong-Hun Kim & Ho Kim & Hae-Kwan Cheong, 2016. "Associations between Meteorological Factors and Aseptic Meningitis in Six Metropolitan Provinces of the Republic of Korea," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-12, November.
    11. D. Chiru Naik & Sagar Rohidas Chavan & P. Sonali, 2023. "Incorporating the climate oscillations in the computation of meteorological drought over India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 2617-2646, July.
    12. Liu, Jin & Li, Rui & Li, Shuo & Meucci, Alberto & Young, Ian R., 2024. "Increasing wave power due to global climate change and intensification of Antarctic Oscillation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).
    13. Kavya Johny & Maya L. Pai & S. Adarsh, 2022. "Investigating the multiscale teleconnections of Madden–Julian oscillation and monthly rainfall using time-dependent intrinsic cross-correlation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(2), pages 1795-1822, June.
    14. Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2015. "Linear and segmented trends in sea surface temperature data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(7), pages 1531-1546, July.
    15. David P. Rowell & Catherine A. Senior & Michael Vellinga & Richard J. Graham, 2016. "Can climate projection uncertainty be constrained over Africa using metrics of contemporary performance?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(4), pages 621-633, February.
    16. K. Sumesh & M. Ramesh Kumar, 2013. "Tropical cyclones over north Indian Ocean during El-Niño Modoki years," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(2), pages 1057-1074, September.
    17. Jiuwei Zhao & Ruifen Zhan & Yuqing Wang & Shang-Ping Xie & Leying Zhang & Mingrui Xu, 2024. "Lapsed El Niño impact on Atlantic and Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone activity in 2023," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    18. Akshansha Chauhan & Rajesh Kumar & Ramesh P. Singh, 2018. "Coupling between Land–Ocean–Atmosphere and Pronounced Changes in Atmospheric/Meteorological Parameters Associated with the Hudhud Cyclone of October 2014," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-18, December.
    19. Mingna Wu & Tianjun Zhou & Chao Li & Hongmei Li & Xiaolong Chen & Bo Wu & Wenxia Zhang & Lixia Zhang, 2021. "A very likely weakening of Pacific Walker Circulation in constrained near-future projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    20. Jong-Hun Kim & Jisun Sung & Ho-Jang Kwon & Hae-Kwan Cheong, 2020. "Effects of El Niño/La Niña on the Number of Imported Shigellosis Cases in the Republic of Korea, 2004–2017," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(1), pages 1-11, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:111:y:2022:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-021-05116-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.