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Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates

Author

Listed:
  • Kieran T. Bhatia

    (NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
    Princeton University)

  • Gabriel A. Vecchi

    (Princeton University
    Princeton University)

  • Thomas R. Knutson

    (NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

  • Hiroyuki Murakami

    (NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
    University Corporation for Atmospheric Research)

  • James Kossin

    (University of Wisconsin)

  • Keith W. Dixon

    (NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

  • Carolyn E. Whitlock

    (NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
    Engility Inc.)

Abstract

Tropical cyclones that rapidly intensify are typically associated with the highest forecast errors and cause a disproportionate amount of human and financial losses. Therefore, it is crucial to understand if, and why, there are observed upward trends in tropical cyclone intensification rates. Here, we utilize two observational datasets to calculate 24-hour wind speed changes over the period 1982–2009. We compare the observed trends to natural variability in bias-corrected, high-resolution, global coupled model experiments that accurately simulate the climatological distribution of tropical cyclone intensification. Both observed datasets show significant increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates in the Atlantic basin that are highly unusual compared to model-based estimates of internal climate variations. Our results suggest a detectable increase of Atlantic intensification rates with a positive contribution from anthropogenic forcing and reveal a need for more reliable data before detecting a robust trend at the global scale.

Suggested Citation

  • Kieran T. Bhatia & Gabriel A. Vecchi & Thomas R. Knutson & Hiroyuki Murakami & James Kossin & Keith W. Dixon & Carolyn E. Whitlock, 2019. "Recent increases in tropical cyclone intensification rates," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-08471-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-08471-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Qian Ke & Jiangshan Yin & Jeremy D. Bricker & Nicholas Savage & Erasmo Buonomo & Qinghua Ye & Paul Visser & Guangtao Dong & Shuai Wang & Zhan Tian & Laixiang Sun & Ralf Toumi & Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, 2021. "An integrated framework of coastal flood modelling under the failures of sea dikes: a case study in Shanghai," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 671-703, October.
    2. Kieran Bhatia & Alexander Baker & Wenchang Yang & Gabriel Vecchi & Thomas Knutson & Hiroyuki Murakami & James Kossin & Kevin Hodges & Keith Dixon & Benjamin Bronselaer & Carolyn Whitlock, 2022. "A potential explanation for the global increase in tropical cyclone rapid intensification," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Yi Li & Youmin Tang & Shuai Wang & Ralf Toumi & Xiangzhou Song & Qiang Wang, 2023. "Recent increases in tropical cyclone rapid intensification events in global offshore regions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Lee, Ji Hyung & Shin, Youngki, 2023. "Complete Subset Averaging For Quantile Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(1), pages 146-188, February.
    5. Sarah S. Wiener & Nora L. Álvarez-Berríos & Angela B. Lindsey, 2020. "Opportunities and Challenges for Hurricane Resilience on Agricultural and Forest Land in the U.S. Southeast and Caribbean," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, February.
    6. Anamaria Bukvic & Guillaume Rohat & Alex Apotsos & Alex de Sherbinin, 2020. "A Systematic Review of Coastal Vulnerability Mapping," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-26, April.
    7. Renato Molina & Ivan Rudik, 2022. "The Social Value of Predicting Hurricanes," CESifo Working Paper Series 10049, CESifo.
    8. Raphaelle G. Coulombe & Akhil Rao, 2023. "Fires and Local Labor Markets," Papers 2308.02739, arXiv.org.
    9. Yang Yang & David J. W. Piper & Min Xu & Jianhua Gao & Jianjun Jia & Alexandre Normandeau & Dongdong Chu & Liang Zhou & Ya Ping Wang & Shu Gao, 2022. "Northwestern Pacific tropical cyclone activity enhanced by increased Asian dust emissions during the Little Ice Age," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    10. Phillip K. Agbesi & Rico Ruffino & Marko Hakovirta, 2023. "The development of sustainable electric vehicle business ecosystems," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(8), pages 1-59, August.
    11. Stacy-ann Robinson & Conall Butchart, 2022. "Planning for Climate Change in Small Island Developing States: Can Dominica’s Climate Resilience and Recovery Plan Be a Model for Transformation in the Caribbean?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-23, April.
    12. Pavan Harika Raavi & Jung-Eun Chu & Axel Timmermann & Sun-Seon Lee & Kevin J. E. Walsh, 2023. "Moisture control of tropical cyclones in high-resolution simulations of paleoclimate and future climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    13. Jian Shi & Xiangbo Feng & Ralf Toumi & Chi Zhang & Kevin I. Hodges & Aifeng Tao & Wei Zhang & Jinhai Zheng, 2024. "Global increase in tropical cyclone ocean surface waves," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    14. Ryan E. Truchelut & Philip J. Klotzbach & Erica M. Staehling & Kimberly M. Wood & Daniel J. Halperin & Carl J. Schreck & Eric S. Blake, 2022. "Earlier onset of North Atlantic hurricane season with warming oceans," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.

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