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Moisture control of tropical cyclones in high-resolution simulations of paleoclimate and future climate

Author

Listed:
  • Pavan Harika Raavi

    (Institute for Basic Science (IBS)
    Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS))

  • Jung-Eun Chu

    (Institute for Basic Science (IBS)
    City University of Hong Kong)

  • Axel Timmermann

    (Institute for Basic Science (IBS)
    Pusan National University)

  • Sun-Seon Lee

    (Institute for Basic Science (IBS)
    Pusan National University)

  • Kevin J. E. Walsh

    (University of Melbourne)

Abstract

The intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) is expected to increase in response to greenhouse warming. However, how future climate change will affect TC frequencies and tracks is still under debate. Here, to further elucidate the underlying sensitivities and mechanisms, we study TCs response to different past and future climate forcings. Using a high-resolution TC-resolving global Earth system model with 1/4° atmosphere and 1/10° ocean resolution, we conducted a series of paleo-time-slice and future greenhouse warming simulations targeting the last interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e, 125 ka), glacial sub-stage MIS5d (115 ka), present-day (PD), and CO2 doubling (2×CO2) conditions. Our analysis reveals that precessional forcing created an interhemispheric difference in simulated TC densities, whereas future CO2 forcing impacts both hemispheres in the same direction. In both cases, we find that TC genesis frequency, density, and intensity are primarily controlled by changes in tropospheric thermal and moisture structure, exhibiting a clear reduction in TC genesis density in warmer hemispheres.

Suggested Citation

  • Pavan Harika Raavi & Jung-Eun Chu & Axel Timmermann & Sun-Seon Lee & Kevin J. E. Walsh, 2023. "Moisture control of tropical cyclones in high-resolution simulations of paleoclimate and future climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-42033-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-42033-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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