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Natural and anthropogenic contributions to the hurricane drought of the 1970s–1980s

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  • Raphaël Rousseau-Rizzi

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Kerry Emanuel

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Abstract

Atlantic hurricane activity experienced a pronounced lull during the 1970s and 1980s. The current explanation that anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing cooled the sea surface locally fails to capture the magnitude of this large decrease in activity. To explain this hurricane drought, we propose that the radiative effects of sulfate aerosols from Europe and North-America decreased precipitation in the Sahara-Sahel region, leading to an enhancement of dust regional emissions and transport over the Atlantic. This dust in turn enhanced the local decrease of sea-surface temperature and of hurricane activity. Here, we show that dust emissions from the Sahara peaked in phase with regional sulfate aerosol optical thickness and Sahel drought conditions, and that dust optical depth variations alone can explain nearly half of the sea-surface temperature depression in the 1970s and 1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Raphaël Rousseau-Rizzi & Kerry Emanuel, 2022. "Natural and anthropogenic contributions to the hurricane drought of the 1970s–1980s," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-32779-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-32779-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gan Zhang, 2023. "Warming-induced contraction of tropical convection delays and reduces tropical cyclone formation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.

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