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Barents-Kara sea-ice decline attributed to surface warming in the Gulf Stream

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  • Yoko Yamagami

    (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)

  • Masahiro Watanabe

    (University of Tokyo)

  • Masato Mori

    (Kyushu University)

  • Jun Ono

    (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)

Abstract

Decline in winter sea-ice concentration (SIC) in the Barents-Kara Sea significantly impacts climate through increased heat release to the atmosphere. However, the past Barents-Kara SIC decrease rate is underestimated in the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models. Here we show that climate model simulations can reproduce the Barents-Kara SIC trend for 1970–2017 when sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Gulf Stream region is constrained by observations. The constrained warming of the Gulf Stream strengthens ocean heat transport to the Barents-Kara Sea that enhances the SIC decline. The linear trends between the SIC and SST are highly correlated in the CMIP6 ensemble, suggesting that the externally forced component of the Gulf Stream SST increase explains up to 56% of the forced Barents-Kara SIC trend. Therefore, future warming of the Gulf Stream can be an essential pacemaker of the SIC decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoko Yamagami & Masahiro Watanabe & Masato Mori & Jun Ono, 2022. "Barents-Kara sea-ice decline attributed to surface warming in the Gulf Stream," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-022-31117-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-022-31117-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Dawei Li & Rong Zhang & Thomas R. Knutson, 2017. "On the discrepancy between observed and CMIP5 multi-model simulated Barents Sea winter sea ice decline," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-7, April.
    3. Sigrid Lind & Randi B. Ingvaldsen & Tore Furevik, 2018. "Arctic warming hotspot in the northern Barents Sea linked to declining sea-ice import," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(7), pages 634-639, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Binhe Luo & Dehai Luo & Yao Ge & Aiguo Dai & Lin Wang & Ian Simmonds & Cunde Xiao & Lixin Wu & Yao Yao, 2023. "Origins of Barents-Kara sea-ice interannual variability modulated by the Atlantic pathway of El Niño–Southern Oscillation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.

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