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Assessment of macroeconomic imbalance indicators

Author

Listed:
  • Orsolya Csortos

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary))

  • Zoltán Szalai

    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary))

Abstract

This study examines the set of indicators of the early warning system used within the framework of the new Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure introduced by the European Commission. The primary objective of the procedure is to call the attention of member countries to dangerous developments that may result in macroeconomic imbalances. First, our findings cast light on the fact that it is not expedient to use the same thresholds for all EU member countries and the newly joined countries. Second, we came to the conclusion that in many cases, the indicators used by the Commission do not in their own right prove to be good early warning indicators. However, if a narrower group of them is examined, there is considerable improvement in the forecasting ability of the set of indicators, although this group may be different from country to country. Our findings corroborate what the Commission itself also indicated: it is not expedient to apply the indicators mechanically, and deeper analysis is necessary in each case prior to launching an Excessive Imbalance Procedure.

Suggested Citation

  • Orsolya Csortos & Zoltán Szalai, 2013. "Assessment of macroeconomic imbalance indicators," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 8(3), pages 14-24, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:mnb:bullet:v:8:y:2013:i:3:p:14-24
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    File URL: http://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/csortos-szalai.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    3. Sarlin, Peter, 2013. "On policymakers’ loss functions and the evaluation of early warning systems," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 1-7.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Daniela Bobeva & Atanas Atanasov, 2017. "Macroeconomic Imbalances in Euro-and Non-Euro Area Member States," Godishnik na UNSS, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 1, pages 25-37, December.
    2. Ostrihoň, Filip, 2022. "Exploring macroeconomic imbalances through EU Alert Mechanism Reports," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    3. Maria Siranova & Karol Zelenak, 2023. "Every crisis does matter: Comparing the databases of financial crisis events," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 652-686, May.
    4. Maria Siranova & Marek Radvanský, 2018. "Performance of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure in light of historical experience in the CEE region," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 335-352, October.
    5. István Ábel & Orsolya Csortos & Kristóf Lehmann & Annamária Madarász & Zoltán Szalai, 2014. "Inflation targeting in the light of lessons from the financial crisis," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 13(4), pages 35-56.
    6. Domonkos Tomáš & Ostrihoň Filip & Šikulová Ivana & Širaňová Mária, 2017. "Analysing the Relevance of the MIP Scoreboard's Indicators," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 239(1), pages 32-52, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    European economic governance; EWIs; macroprudential policy; macroeconomic stability; financial stability; signalling.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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