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Aggregált kereslet és kínálat, termelés és külkereskedelem a magyar gazdaságban (1990 1994)
[Aggregate demand and supply, production and foreign trade in the Hungarian economy (1990 1994)]

Author

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  • Simon, András

Abstract

Az utóbbi évek számos változása miatt a magyar gazdaságban nem gyűlt össze annyi megfigyelés, hogy lehetővé vált volna az olyan makroökonómiai összefüggések ökonometriai becslése, amelyek az exportot és az importot meghatározzák. A fő prob- lémát az aggregált kínálat számszerű megragadása okozza. Ilyen nagy strukturális átalakulás időszakában nincsen olyan módszer, amelynek segítségével olyan sta- tisztikai mutatót számíthatnánk, amelyik közelítően információt nyújthatna a terme- lők tervezett értékesítéséről, vagyis a kínálatról. Ezért e tanulmány fordított megkö- zelítést alkalmaz: feltételez bizonyos strukturális egyenleteket, majd kiszámítja, hogy az egyenletek paramétereitől függően ezek milyen kínálati mutatót implikálnak. E kínálati mutatók valószerűségét egyéb, nem számszerű információinkkal való konzisztenciáját elemezve, levonhatunk néhány következtetést a paraméterekre vonatkozóan. Bár ezzel a logikai módszerrel kizárhatunk bizonyos paramétertarto- mányokat mint valószínűtleneket, még mindig széles az a tartomány, amelyen belül bizonytalanok maradunk. Röviden tehát: a módszer nem adja meg az elmúlt öt év gazdaságtörténetének kulcsát, de kiszámítva feltevéseink következményeit, segít a továbbgondolkodásban.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon, András, 1996. "Aggregált kereslet és kínálat, termelés és külkereskedelem a magyar gazdaságban (1990 1994) [Aggregate demand and supply, production and foreign trade in the Hungarian economy (1990 1994)]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 251-265.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:87
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    2. Stiglitz, Joseph E., 1992. "Capital markets and economic fluctuations in capitalist economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 269-306, April.
    3. Steven C. Salop, 1979. "Monopolistic Competition with Outside Goods," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 10(1), pages 141-156, Spring.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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