IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/transp/v52y2025i1d10.1007_s11116-023-10424-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

WILL COVID-19 jump-start telecommuting? Evidence from California

Author

Listed:
  • Md Rabiul Islam

    (University of California)

  • Jean-Daniel M. Saphores

    (University of California)

Abstract

Health concerns and government restrictions have caused a surge in work from home during the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in a sharp increase in telecommuting. However, it is not clear if it will perdure after the pandemic, and what socio-economic groups will be most affected. To investigate the impact of the pandemic on telecommuting, we analyzed a dataset collected for us at the end of May 2021 by Ipsos via a random survey of Californians in KnowledgePanel©, the largest and oldest probability-based panel in the US. Our structural equation models account for car ownership and housing costs to explain telecommuting frequency before, during, and possibly after the pandemic. We found that an additional 4.2% of California workers expect to engage in some level of telecommuting post-pandemic, which is substantial but possibly less than suggested in other studies. Some likely durable gains can be expected for Californians who work in management, business / finance / administration, and engineering / architecture / law / social sciences. Workers with more education started telecommuting more during the pandemic, a trend expected to continue post-pandemic. Full time work status has a negative impact on telecommuting frequency, and so does household size during and after the pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Md Rabiul Islam & Jean-Daniel M. Saphores, 2025. "WILL COVID-19 jump-start telecommuting? Evidence from California," Transportation, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 349-380, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:52:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s11116-023-10424-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-023-10424-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11116-023-10424-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11116-023-10424-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nick & Davis, Steven J., 2020. "Why Working From Home Will Stick," SocArXiv wfdbe, Center for Open Science.
    2. Mokhtarian, Patricia L. & Cao, Xinyu, 2008. "Examining the impacts of residential self-selection on travel behavior: A focus on methodologies," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 204-228, March.
    3. Ipek N Sener & Phillip R Reeder, 2012. "An Examination of Behavioral Linkages across ICT Choice Dimensions: Copula Modeling of Telecommuting and Teleshopping Choice Behavior," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 44(6), pages 1459-1478, June.
    4. Patricia L Mokhtarian & Gustavo O Collantes & Carsten Gertz, 2004. "Telecommuting, Residential Location, and Commute-Distance Traveled: Evidence from State of California Employees," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 36(10), pages 1877-1897, October.
    5. Giuliano, Genevieve & Small, Kenneth A., 1991. "Subcenters in the Los Angeles region," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 163-182, July.
    6. Pengyu Zhu, 2012. "Are telecommuting and personal travel complements or substitutes?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 48(2), pages 619-639, April.
    7. Hensher, David A. & Balbontin, Camila & Beck, Matthew J. & Wei, Edward, 2022. "The impact of working from home on modal commuting choice response during COVID-19: Implications for two metropolitan areas in Australia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 179-201.
    8. Fu, Miao & Andrew Kelly, J. & Peter Clinch, J. & King, Fearghal, 2012. "Environmental policy implications of working from home: Modelling the impacts of land-use, infrastructure and socio-demographics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 416-423.
    9. Giuliano, Genevieve, 1991. "Is Jobs-Housing Balance a Transportation Issue?," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt4874r4hg, University of California Transportation Center.
    10. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555, Enero.
    11. Zhang, Shihang & Moeckel, Rolf & Moreno, Ana Tsui & Shuai, Bin & Gao, Jie, 2020. "A work-life conflict perspective on telework," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 51-68.
    12. Jin-Ru Yen, 2000. "Interpreting employee telecommuting adoption: An economics perspective," Transportation, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 149-164, February.
    13. Israel Escudero-Castillo & Fco. Javier Mato-Díaz & Ana Rodriguez-Alvarez, 2021. "Furloughs, Teleworking and Other Work Situations during the COVID-19 Lockdown: Impact on Mental Well-Being," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-16, March.
    14. Luca Bonacini & Giovanni Gallo & Sergio Scicchitano, 2021. "Working from home and income inequality: risks of a ‘new normal’ with COVID-19," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 303-360, January.
    15. Patricia L. Mokhtarian & Michael N. Bagley & Ilan Salomon, 1998. "The impact of gender, occupation, and presence of children on telecommuting motivations and constraints," Journal of the American Society for Information Science, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 49(12), pages 1115-1134.
    16. Becky P. Y. Loo & Bo Wang, 2018. "Factors associated with home-based e-working and e-shopping in Nanjing, China," Transportation, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 365-384, March.
    17. Stefania Albanesi & Jiyeon Kim, 2021. "Effects of the COVID-19 Recession on the US Labor Market: Occupation, Family, and Gender," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 3-24, Summer.
    18. Islam, Md Rabiul & Saphores, Jean-Daniel M., 2022. "An L.A. story: The impact of housing costs on commuting," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    19. Beck, Matthew J. & Hensher, David A. & Wei, Edward, 2020. "Slowly coming out of COVID-19 restrictions in Australia: Implications for working from home and commuting trips by car and public transport," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    20. Veronique Acker & Frank Witlox, 2011. "Commuting trips within tours: how is commuting related to land use?," Transportation, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 465-486, May.
    21. Minh Hieu Nguyen, 2021. "Factors influencing home-based telework in Hanoi (Vietnam) during and after the COVID-19 era," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(6), pages 3207-3238, December.
    22. Cervero, Robert, 1989. "Jobs-Housing Balancing and Regional Mobility," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt7mx3k73h, University of California Transportation Center.
    23. Haddad, Hebba & Lyons, Glenn & Chatterjee, Kiron, 2009. "An examination of determinants influencing the desire for and frequency of part-day and whole-day homeworking," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 124-133.
    24. Abay Asfaw, 2022. "Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Teleworking Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States: A Mediation Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(8), pages 1-18, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Minh Hieu Nguyen, 2021. "Factors influencing home-based telework in Hanoi (Vietnam) during and after the COVID-19 era," Transportation, Springer, vol. 48(6), pages 3207-3238, December.
    2. Minh Hieu Nguyen & Jimmy Armoogum, 2021. "Perception and Preference for Home-Based Telework in the COVID-19 Era: A Gender-Based Analysis in Hanoi, Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-16, March.
    3. Islam, Md Rabiul & Saphores, Jean-Daniel M., 2022. "An L.A. story: The impact of housing costs on commuting," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    4. Böhnen, Carina & Kuhnimhof, Tobias, 2024. "Working from home and commuter travel in germany – panel data analysis of long-term effects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    5. Balbontin, Camila & Hensher, David A. & Beck, Matthew J. & Giesen, Ricardo & Basnak, Paul & Vallejo-Borda, Jose Agustin & Venter, Christoffel, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 on the number of days working from home and commuting travel: A cross-cultural comparison between Australia, South America and South Africa," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    6. Kazunori Minetaki, 2023. "An Empirical Study of the Effects of Telework During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan Using Panel Data," The Review of Socionetwork Strategies, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 3-23, April.
    7. Rafiq, Rezwana & McNally, Michael G. & Sarwar Uddin, Yusuf & Ahmed, Tanjeeb, 2022. "Impact of working from home on activity-travel behavior during the COVID-19 Pandemic: An aggregate structural analysis," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 35-54.
    8. Asmussen, Katherine E. & Mondal, Aupal & Bhat, Chandra R. & Pendyala, Ram M., 2023. "On modeling future workplace location decisions: An analysis of Texas employees," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    9. João de Abreu e Silva, 2022. "Residential preferences, telework perceptions, and the intention to telework: insights from the Lisbon Metropolitan Area during the COVID‐19 pandemic," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(S1), pages 142-161, November.
    10. Balbontin, Camila & Hensher, David A. & Beck, Matthew J., 2022. "Advanced modelling of commuter choice model and work from home during COVID-19 restrictions in Australia," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    11. Beck, Matthew J. & Hensher, David A., 2022. "Working from home in Australia in 2020: Positives, negatives and the potential for future benefits to transport and society," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 271-284.
    12. Camila Balbontin & David A. Hensher & Matthew J. Beck, 2024. "Relationship between commuting and non-commuting travel activity under the growing incidence of working from home and people’s attitudes towards COVID-19," Transportation, Springer, vol. 51(6), pages 2225-2251, December.
    13. Georges A. Tanguay & Ugo Lachapelle, 2019. "Potential Impacts of Telecommuting on Transportation Behaviours, Health and Hours Worked in Québec," CIRANO Project Reports 2019rp-07, CIRANO.
    14. Katherine Pawluk De-Toledo & Steve O’Hern & Sjaan Koppel, 2024. "A social-ecological model of working from home during COVID-19," Transportation, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1181-1208, August.
    15. Evelyn Blumenberg & Fariba Siddiq, 2023. "Commute distance and jobs-housing fit," Transportation, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 869-891, June.
    16. Jiangping, Zhou & Chun, Zhang & Xiaojian, Chen & Wei, Huang & Peng, Yu, 2014. "Has the legacy of Danwei persisted in transformations? the jobs-housing balance and commuting efficiency in Xi’an," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 64-76.
    17. Hensher, David A. & Balbontin, Camila & Beck, Matthew J. & Wei, Edward, 2022. "The impact of working from home on modal commuting choice response during COVID-19: Implications for two metropolitan areas in Australia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 179-201.
    18. Zhang, Shihang & Moeckel, Rolf & Moreno, Ana Tsui & Shuai, Bin & Gao, Jie, 2020. "A work-life conflict perspective on telework," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 51-68.
    19. Mitra, Suman K. & Saphores, Jean-Daniel M., 2019. "Why do they live so far from work? Determinants of long-distance commuting in California," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    20. Balbontin, Camila & Hensher, David A. & Beck, Matthew J., 2024. "The influence of working from home and underlying attitudes on the number of commuting and non-commuting trips by workers during 2020 and 2021 pre- and post-lockdown in Australia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:52:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1007_s11116-023-10424-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.