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Does telecommuting reduce vehicle-miles traveled? An aggregate time series analysis for the U.S

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  • Sangho Choo
  • Patricia Mokhtarian

    ()

  • Ilan Salomon

Abstract

This study examines the impact of telecommuting on passenger vehicle- miles traveled (VMT) through a multivariate time series analysis of aggregate nationwide data spanning 1966-1999 for all variables except telecommuting, and 1988-1998 for telecommuting. The analysis was conducted in two stages. In the first stage, VMT (1966-1999) was modeled as a function of conventional variables representing economic activity, transportation price, transportation supply and socio-demographics. In the second stage, the residuals of the first stage (1988-1998) were modeled as a function of the number of telecommuters. We also assessed the change in annual VMT per telecommuter as well as VMT per telecommuting occasion, for 1998. The models suggest that telecommuting reduces VMT, with 94% confidence. Together with independent external evidence, the results suggest a reduction in annual VMT on the order of 0.8% or less. Even with impacts that small, when informally compared to similar reductions in VMT due to public transit ridership, telecommuting appears to be far more cost-effective in terms of public sector expenditures.
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Suggested Citation

  • Sangho Choo & Patricia Mokhtarian & Ilan Salomon, 2005. "Does telecommuting reduce vehicle-miles traveled? An aggregate time series analysis for the U.S," Transportation, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 37-64, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:transp:v:32:y:2005:i:1:p:37-64
    DOI: 10.1007/s11116-004-3046-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David L. Greene, 1992. "Vehicle Use and Fuel Economy: How Big is the "Rebound" Effect?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 117-144.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Walls, Margaret & Safirova, Elena, 2004. "A Review of the Literature on Telecommuting and Its Implications for Vehicle Travel and Emissions," Discussion Papers dp-04-44, Resources For the Future.
    2. Giovanni Circella, 2006. "Towards the adoption of technological innovations: decision processes in transport policy definition," ERSA conference papers ersa06p556, European Regional Science Association.
    3. repec:eee:transa:v:100:y:2017:i:c:p:40-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Tal, Gil & Cohen-Blankshtain, Galit, 2011. "Understanding the role of the forecast-maker in overestimation forecasts of policy impacts: The case of Travel Demand Management policies," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(5), pages 389-400, June.
    5. Kreuzer, Fabian Maximilian & Wilmsmeier, Gordon, 2014. "Energy efficiency and mobility: A roadmap towards a greener economy in Latin America and the Caribbean," Documentos de Proyectos 602, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    6. Patricia Mokhtarian & Ilan Salomon & Sangho Choo, 2005. "Measuring the Measurable: Why can’t we Agree on the Number of Telecommuters in the U.S.?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 423-452, August.
    7. Amalia Polydoropoulou & Athena Tsirimpa, 2012. "Women’s Time Use with ICT and Physical Travel in Greek Urban and Rural Areas," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 62(1-2), pages 72-91, January -.
    8. O'Keefe, Paul & Caulfield, Brian & Brazil, William & White, Peter, 2016. "The impacts of telecommuting in Dublin," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 13-20.
    9. Marius Thériault & Paul Y. Villeneuve & Marie-Hélène Vandersmissen & François Des Rosiers, 2005. "Homeworking, telecommuting and journey to workplaces - Are differences among genders and professions varying over space?," ERSA conference papers ersa05p141, European Regional Science Association.
    10. repec:eee:transa:v:103:y:2017:i:c:p:1-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Choo, Sangho & Mokhtarian, Patricia L., 2007. "Telecommunications and travel demand and supply: Aggregate structural equation models for the US," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 4-18, January.
    12. Rotem-Mindali, Orit, 2010. "E-tail versus retail: The effects on shopping related travel empirical evidence from Israel," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 312-322, September.
    13. repec:eee:jotrge:v:69:y:2018:i:c:p:11-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:kap:transp:v:45:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11116-017-9846-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Pengyu Zhu, 2012. "Are telecommuting and personal travel complements or substitutes?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 48(2), pages 619-639, April.
    16. Duddu, Venkata R. & Pulugurtha, Srinivas S., 2015. "Assessing the Effect of Compressed Work Week Strategy on Transportation Network Performance Measures," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-15.
    17. Dissanayake, Dilum & Morikawa, Takayuki, 2008. "Impact assessment of satellite centre-based telecommuting on travel and air quality in developing countries by exploring the link between travel behaviour and urban form," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 883-894, July.
    18. Santos, Georgina & Behrendt, Hannah & Teytelboym, Alexander, 2010. "Part II: Policy instruments for sustainable road transport," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 46-91.
    19. Menezes, Esther & Maia, Alexandre Gori & de Carvalho, Cristiane Silva, 2017. "Effectiveness of low-carbon development strategies: Evaluation of policy scenarios for the urban transport sector in a Brazilian megacity," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 226-241.
    20. Margaret Walls & Peter Nelson & Elena Safirova, 2005. "Telecommuting and environmental policy - lessons from the Ecommute program," ERSA conference papers ersa05p801, European Regional Science Association.
    21. Aguiléra, Anne & Guillot, Caroline & Rallet, Alain, 2012. "Mobile ICTs and physical mobility: Review and research agenda," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 664-672.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    aggregate analysis; telecommuting; teleworking; time series analysis; vehicle-miles traveled modeling/forecasting;

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs

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