IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/rqfnac/v45y2015i1p89-110.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange traded funds, size-based portfolios, and market efficiency

Author

Listed:
  • Palani-Rajan Kadapakkam
  • Timothy Krause
  • Yiuman Tse

Abstract

We examine the informational efficiency of size-based US exchange traded funds (ETFs) and comparable Center for Research in Security Prices portfolios. ETFs are better suited for market efficiency tests since they avoid potential asynchronous trading problems, and their negligible bid-ask spreads greatly diminish noise due to the bid-ask bounce. Variance ratio analysis demonstrates that return autocorrelations have diminished significantly over the past decade. Granger causality tests reject the presence of lead-lag effects among size-based ETFs. However, volatility spills over from large firm ETFs to those of smaller firms, and these spillovers extend to ETF option implied volatilities. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Palani-Rajan Kadapakkam & Timothy Krause & Yiuman Tse, 2015. "Exchange traded funds, size-based portfolios, and market efficiency," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 89-110, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:45:y:2015:i:1:p:89-110
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-013-0429-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11156-013-0429-x
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11156-013-0429-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ólan T. Henry & John Sharma, 1999. "Asymmetric Conditional Volatility and Firm Size: Evidence from Australian Equity Portfolios," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(4), pages 393-406, December.
    2. Kewei Hou, 2007. "Industry Information Diffusion and the Lead-lag Effect in Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 1113-1138.
    3. Malinova, Katya & Park, Andreas, 2010. "Trading Volume in Dealer Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(6), pages 1447-1484, December.
    4. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2009. "Variance‐Ratio Tests Of Random Walk: An Overview," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 503-527, July.
    5. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    6. Neil L. Fargher & Robert A. Weigand, 1998. "Changes In The Stock Price Reaction Of Small Firms To Common Information," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 105-121, March.
    7. Vinay Datar & Raymond So & Yiuman Tse, 2008. "Liquidity commonality and spillover in the US and Japanese markets: an intraday analysis using exchange-traded funds," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 379-393, November.
    8. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December.
    9. Doron Avramov & Tarun Chordia & Amit Goyal, 2006. "The Impact of Trades on Daily Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1241-1277.
    10. Conrad, Jennifer & Kaul, Gautam, 1988. "Time-Variation in Expected Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(4), pages 409-425, October.
    11. Yiuman Tse & Paramita Bandyopadhyay & Yang-Pin Shen, 2006. "Intraday Price Discovery in the DJIA Index Markets," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9-10), pages 1572-1585.
    12. Boudoukh, Jacob & Richardson, Matthew P & Whitelaw, Robert F, 1994. "A Tale of Three Schools: Insights on Autocorrelations of Short-Horizon Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(3), pages 539-573.
    13. Jegadeesh N. & Titman S., 1995. "Short-Horizon Return Reversals and the Bid-Ask Spread," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 116-132, April.
    14. French, Kenneth R. & Roll, Richard, 1986. "Stock return variances : The arrival of information and the reaction of traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 5-26, September.
    15. Guillermo Llorente & Roni Michaely & Gideon Saar & Jiang Wang, 2002. "Dynamic Volume-Return Relation of Individual Stocks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1005-1047.
    16. Fargher, Neil L & Weigand, Robert A, 1998. "Changes in the Stock Price Reaction of Small Firms to Common Information," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 105-121, Spring.
    17. Badrinath, S G & Kale, Jayant R & Noe, Thomas H, 1995. "Of Shepherds, Sheep, and the Cross-autocorrelations in Equity Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(2), pages 401-430.
    18. Wright, Jonathan H, 2000. "Alternative Variance-Ratio Tests Using Ranks and Signs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 1-9, January.
    19. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-273, April.
    20. John M. Griffin & Patrick J. Kelly & Federico Nardari, 2010. "Do Market Efficiency Measures Yield Correct Inferences? A Comparison of Developed and Emerging Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(8), pages 3225-3277, August.
    21. Hoque, Hafiz A.A.B. & Kim, Jae H. & Pyun, Chong Soo, 2007. "A comparison of variance ratio tests of random walk: A case of Asian emerging stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 488-502.
    22. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    23. Mei-Maun Hseu & Huimin Chung & Erh-Yin Sun, 2007. "Price Discovery across the Stock Index Futures and the ETF Markets: Intra-Day Evidence from the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100 and DJIA Indices," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 215-236.
    24. Conrad, Christian & Karanasos, Menelaos, 2010. "Negative Volatility Spillovers In The Unrestricted Eccc-Garch Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 838-862, June.
    25. Lo, Andrew W. & Craig MacKinlay, A., 1990. "An econometric analysis of nonsynchronous trading," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 181-211.
    26. Hibbert, Ann Marie & Daigler, Robert T. & Dupoyet, Brice, 2008. "A behavioral explanation for the negative asymmetric return-volatility relation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2254-2266, October.
    27. Chung, Kee H. & Zhang, Hao, 2014. "A simple approximation of intraday spreads using daily data," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 94-120.
    28. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    29. Conrad, Jennifer & Gultekin, Mustafa N & Kaul, Gautam, 1991. "Asymmetric Predictability of Conditional Variances," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(4), pages 597-622.
    30. Mech, Timothy S., 1993. "Portfolio return autocorrelation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 307-344, December.
    31. Louis T. W. Cheng & Hung-Gay Fung & Yiuman Tse, 2008. "China's Exchange Traded Fund: Is There a Trading Place Bias?," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 11(01), pages 61-74.
    32. O'Hara, Maureen & Ye, Mao, 2011. "Is market fragmentation harming market quality?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 459-474, June.
    33. Jensen, Michael C., 1978. "Some anomalous evidence regarding market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2-3), pages 95-101.
    34. John H. Cochrane, 2008. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1533-1575, July.
    35. Chordia, Tarun & Sarkar, Asani & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2011. "Liquidity Dynamics and Cross-Autocorrelations," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(3), pages 709-736, June.
    36. Marc Simpson & Jose Moreno & Teofilo Ozuna, 2012. "The makings of an information leader: the intraday price discovery process for individual stocks in the DJIA," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 347-365, April.
    37. Amit Goyal & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2003. "Idiosyncratic Risk Matters!," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 975-1008, June.
    38. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    39. Yiuman Tse & Paramita Bandyopadhyay & Yang‐Pin Shen, 2006. "Intraday Price Discovery in the DJIA Index Markets," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9‐10), pages 1572-1585, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Shiwei Su & Ahmad Hassan Ahmad & Justine Wood, 2020. "How effective is central bank communication in emerging economies? An empirical analysis of the chinese money markets responses to the people’s bank of China’s policy communications," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1195-1219, May.
    2. Debarati Bhattacharya & Wei-Hsien Li & Gokhan Sonaer, 2017. "Has momentum lost its momentum?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 191-218, January.
    3. Patrick Kuok-Kun Chu, 2016. "Analysis and Forecast of Tracking Performance of Hong Kong Exchange-Traded Funds: Evidence from Tracker Fund and X iShares A50," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(04), pages 1-26, December.
    4. Houdou Basse Mama & Stefan Mueller & Ulrich Pape, 2017. "What’s in the news? The ambiguity of the information content of index reconstitutions in Germany," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1087-1119, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Palani-Rajan Kadapakkam & Timothy Krause & Yiuman Tse, 2013. "Exchange Traded Funds, Size-Based Portfolios, And Market Efficiency," Working Papers 0214fin, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
    2. Wen-Jun Xue & Li-Wen Zhang, 2016. "Stock Return Autocorrelations and Predictability in the Chinese Stock Market: Evidence from Threshold Quantile Autoregressive Models," Working Papers 1605, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
    3. Baltussen, Guido & van Bekkum, Sjoerd & Da, Zhi, 2019. "Indexing and stock market serial dependence around the world," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 26-48.
    4. Xue, Wen-Jun & Zhang, Li-Wen, 2017. "Stock return autocorrelations and predictability in the Chinese stock market—Evidence from threshold quantile autoregressive models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 391-401.
    5. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    6. Rahman, Md. Lutfur & Lee, Doowon & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2017. "Time-varying return predictability in South Asian equity markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 179-200.
    7. George Milunovich, 2004. "Modeling dependence structure in size-sorted portfolios: A Structural Multivariate GARCH Model," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 55, Econometric Society.
    8. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Fouilloux, Jessica, 2011. "Testing the martingale difference hypothesis in CO2 emission allowances," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 27-35.
    9. Roberto Ortiz & Mauricio Contreras & Marcelo Villena, 2015. "On the Efficient Market Hypothesis of Stock Market Indexes: The Role of Non-synchronous Trading and Portfolio Effects," Papers 1510.03926, arXiv.org.
    10. Bohl, Martin T. & Pütz, Alexander & Sulewski, Christoph, 2021. "Speculation and the informational efficiency of commodity futures markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    11. Chiao, Chaoshin & Hung, Ken & Lee, Cheng F., 2004. "The price adjustment and lead-lag relations between stock returns: microstructure evidence from the Taiwan stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 709-731, December.
    12. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2009. "The efficiency of the crude oil markets: Evidence from variance ratio tests," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4267-4272, November.
    13. Hiremath, Gourishankar S & Bandi, Kamaiah, 2012. "Variance ratios, structural breaks and nonrandom walk behaviour in the Indian stock returns," MPRA Paper 48710, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Dong-Hyun Ahn & Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert Whitelaw, 1999. "Behavioralize This! International Evidence on Autocorrelation Patterns of Stock Index and Futures Returns," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-040, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    15. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2009. "The random walk hypothesis for Chinese stock markets: Evidence from variance ratio tests," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 117-126, June.
    16. Ashok Chanabasangouda Patil & Shailesh Rastogi, 2019. "Time-Varying Price–Volume Relationship and Adaptive Market Efficiency: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, June.
    17. Xu, Yexiao, 2004. "Small levels of predictability and large economic gains," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 247-275, March.
    18. Sias, Richard W. & Starks, Laura T., 1997. "Return autocorrelation and institutional investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 103-131, October.
    19. Bohl, Martin T. & Irwin, Scott H. & Pütz, Alexander & Sulewski, Christoph, 2023. "The impact of financialization on the efficiency of commodity futures markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    20. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2004. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) Models: A Review," MPRA Paper 80487, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ETF; Variance ratio; Return/volatility spillovers; Market efficiency; G14;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:45:y:2015:i:1:p:89-110. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.