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The Informational Role of Option Trading Volume in Equity Index Options Markets

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  • Ghulam Sarwar

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Abstract

This paper examines the dynamic relations between future price volatility of the S&P 500 index and trading volume of S&P 500 options to explore the informational role of option volume in predicting the price volatility. The future volatility of the index is approximated alternatively by implied volatility and by EGARCH volatility. Using a simultaneous equation model to capture the volume-volatility relations, the paper finds that strong contemporaneous feedbacks exist between the future price volatility and the trading volume of call and put options. Previous option volumes have a strong predictive ability with respect to the future price volatility. Similarly, lagged changes in volatility have a significant predictive power for option volume. Although the volume-volatility relations for individual volatility and volume terms are somewhat different under the two volatility measures, the results on the predictive ability of volume (volatility) for volatility (volume) are broadly similar between the implied and EGARCH volatilities. These findings support the hypothesis that both the information- and hedge-related trading explain most of the trading volume of equity index options. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Ghulam Sarwar, 2005. "The Informational Role of Option Trading Volume in Equity Index Options Markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 159-176, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:24:y:2005:i:2:p:159-176
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-005-6335-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. " Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
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    12. Mayhew, Stewart & Sarin, Atulya & Shastri, Kuldeep, 1995. " The Allocation of Informed Trading across Related Markets: An Analysis of the Impact of Changes in Equity-Option Margin Requirements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1635-1653, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Irina Bilan, 2011. "Public Debt Developments In Eu Member States: Challenges And Solutions," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 2011, pages 57-69, july.
    2. Li, Wei-Xuan & Chen, Clara Chia-Sheng & French, Joseph J., 2015. "Toward an early warning system of financial crises: What can index futures and options tell us?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 87-99.

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    Keywords

    option volume; future volatility;

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