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Party switching and political outcomes: evidence from Brazilian municipalities

Author

Listed:
  • Henrique Augusto Campos Fernandez Hott

    (FEA/USP)

  • Sergio Naruhiko Sakurai

    (FEA-RP/USP)

Abstract

Although party switching is a relatively rare event in most countries, the phenomenon is widespread in Brazil. This paper investigates the effects of party switching on political and economic variables between 2001 and 2012 using a database containing more than 4900 Brazilian municipalities. In particular, given that the conventional literature addresses party switching by legislators, this paper focuses on chief executives, specifically mayors, a subject that has not yet been explored in the literature. In this study, party switching is interpreted as a treatment effect: the treated group comprises municipalities whose mayors changed parties during their terms in office. The control group comprises municipalities with no party switching, but with similar likelihoods of being treated, as defined by propensity score matching (PSM) methods. Our results suggest that mayors belonging to the same party as the state governor or the president are less likely to switch parties. Moreover, switching from a different party to the state governor’s party creates the best results for switchers who want to be renominated. Regarding reelection, our panel estimations suggest that the impact of party switching on reelection is positive. Finally, we find no statistically significant effect of party switching on the amounts of transfers received by municipalities from upper government levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Henrique Augusto Campos Fernandez Hott & Sergio Naruhiko Sakurai, 2021. "Party switching and political outcomes: evidence from Brazilian municipalities," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 187(3), pages 403-438, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:187:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s11127-020-00786-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-020-00786-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sergio Naruhiko Sakurai & Maria Isabel Accoroni Theodoro, 2020. "On the relationship between political alignment and government transfers: triple differences evidence from a developing country," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1107-1141, March.
    2. Scott W. Desposato, 2006. "Parties for Rent? Ambition, Ideology, and Party Switching in Brazil's Chamber of Deputies," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(1), pages 62-80, January.
    3. Desposato, Scott & Scheiner, Ethan, 2008. "Governmental Centralization and Party Affiliation: Legislator Strategies in Brazil and Japan," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 102(4), pages 509-524, November.
    4. William B. Heller & Carol Mershon, 2008. "Dealing in Discipline: Party Switching and Legislative Voting in the Italian Chamber of Deputies, 1988–2000," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(4), pages 910-925, October.
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    7. Marco Migueis, 2013. "The Effect of Political Alignment on Transfers to Portuguese Municipalities," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 110-133, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Party switching; Brazilian municipalities; Electoral performance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H79 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Other

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