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Referendum design, quorum rules and turnout

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  • Luís Aguiar-Conraria
  • Pedro Magalhães

Abstract

In this article, we focus on the consequences of quorum requirements for turnout in referendums. We use a rational choice, decision theoretic voting model to demonstrate that participation quorums change the incentives some electors face, inducing those who oppose changes in the status quo and expect to be in the minority to abstain. As a result, paradoxically, participation quorums decrease electoral participation. We test our model’s predictions using data for all referendums held in current European Union countries from 1970 until 2007, and show that the existence of a participation quorums increases abstention by more than ten percentage points.
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Suggested Citation

  • Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Pedro Magalhães, 2010. "Referendum design, quorum rules and turnout," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 144(1), pages 63-81, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:144:y:2010:i:1:p:63-81
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-009-9504-1
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Referendum design; Voter turnout; D72; C25; C20;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General

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