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Comparisons of Urban Travel Forecasts Prepared with the Sequential Procedure and a Combined Model


  • Justin Siegel


  • Joaquín Cea


  • José Fernández


  • Renán Rodriguez


  • David Boyce



Detailed analyses and comparisons of urban travel forecasts prepared by applying the state-of-practice sequential procedure and the solution of a combined network equilibrium model are presented. The sequential procedure for solving the trip distribution, mode choice and assignment problems with feedback is the current practice in most transportation planning agencies, although its important limitations are well known. The solution of a combined model, in contrast, results from a single mathematical formulation, which ensures a well-converged and consistent result. Using a real network, several methods for solving the sequential procedure with feedback are compared to the solution of the combined model ESTRAUS. The results of these methods are shown to have various levels of instability. The paper concludes with a call for a new paradigm of travel forecasting practice based on an internally consistent model formulation that can be solved to a level of precision suitable for comparing alternative scenarios. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, LLC 2006

Suggested Citation

  • Justin Siegel & Joaquín Cea & José Fernández & Renán Rodriguez & David Boyce, 2006. "Comparisons of Urban Travel Forecasts Prepared with the Sequential Procedure and a Combined Model," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 135-148, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:netspa:v:6:y:2006:i:2:p:135-148
    DOI: 10.1007/s11067-006-7697-0

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Lam, William H. K. & Huang, Hai-Jun, 1992. "A combined trip distribution and assignment model for multiple user classes," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 275-287, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Songyot Kitthamkesorn & Anthony Chen & Xiangdong Xu & Seungkyu Ryu, 2016. "Modeling Mode and Route Similarities in Network Equilibrium Problem with Go-Green Modes," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 33-60, March.
    2. Seungkyu Ryu & Anthony Chen & Xiangdong Xu & Keechoo Choi, 2014. "A Dual Approach for Solving the Combined Distribution and Assignment Problem with Link Capacity Constraints," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 245-270, June.


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