IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

The Optimal Mortgage Loan Portfolio in UK Regional Residential Real Estate

  • Youngha Cho

    ()

  • Soosung Hwang

    ()

  • Steve Satchell

    ()

In this study, we propose a method based on large deviation theory (LDT), which minimises credit risk (expected loss). We demonstrate how mortgage loan portfolios can be optimised using geographical differences in the risk characteristics of mortgage loans in the UK. Our empirical results show that credit risk can be reduced by a third when the LDT method is used instead of the benchmark portfolios that we calculate with regional-gross-value-added weights and equal weights. More importantly, the difference in the expected loss between these portfolios increases further during bearish housing markets. To see that such numbers matter, in an extreme scenario, the UK mortgage lenders could lose more than 2% a year as the consequence of mortgage defaults, which is equivalent to an annual loss of approximately 20 billion pounds in the UK. Although this extreme state would not continue for a long time, it nevertheless represents a huge potential loss for mortgage lenders and investors. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2012

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11146-010-9269-9
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Springer in its journal The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.

Volume (Year): 45 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (October)
Pages: 645-677

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:45:y:2012:i:3:p:645-677
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Lawrence Goldberg & Charles A. Capone, Jr., 2002. "A Dynamic Double-Trigger Model of Multifamily Mortgage Default," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 85-113.
  2. Kau, James B, et al, 1992. "A Generalized Valuation Model for Fixed-Rate Residential Mortgages," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(3), pages 279-99, August.
  3. Didier Sornette, 1998. "Large deviations and portfolio optimization," Papers cond-mat/9802059, arXiv.org, revised Jun 1998.
  4. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  5. Benjamin J. Keys & Tanmoy Mukherjee & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2010. "Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening? Evidence from Subprime Loans," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(1), pages 307-362, February.
  6. Quigley, John M., 1993. "Explicit Tests of Contingent Claims Models of Mortgage Defaults," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3df5357v, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  7. Kerry D. Vandell, 1992. "Predicting Commercial Mortgage Foreclosure Experience," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 20(1), pages 55-88.
  8. Calem, Paul S. & LaCour-Little, Michael, 2004. "Risk-based capital requirements for mortgage loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 647-672, March.
  9. Shaun Bond & Soosung Hwang & Zhenguo Lin & Kerry Vandell, 2007. "Marketing Period Risk in a Portfolio Context: Theory and Empirical Estimates from the UK Commercial Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 447-461, May.
  10. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June.
  11. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
  12. Keys, Benjamin J. & Mukherjee, Tanmoy & Seru, Amit & Vig, Vikrant, 2009. "Financial regulation and securitization: Evidence from subprime loans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(5), pages 700-720, July.
  13. Ambrose, Brent W & Buttimer, Richard J, Jr & Capone, Charles A, 1997. "Pricing Mortgage Default and Foreclosure Delay," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 314-25, August.
  14. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
  15. Kerry D. Vandell, 1984. "On the Assessment of Default Risk in Commercial Mortgage Lending," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 12(3), pages 270-296.
  16. Sanjiv Das, 2007. "Basel II: Correlation Related Issues," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 17-38, October.
  17. Ambrose, Brent W & Capone, Charles A, Jr & Deng, Yongheng, 2001. "Optimal Put Exercise: An Empirical Examination of Conditions for Mortgage Foreclosure," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 213-34, September.
  18. Sornette, Didier, 1998. "Large deviations and portfolio optimization," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 256(1), pages 251-283.
  19. Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 1993. "Myopic Loss Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 4369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Jarrow, Robert A & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1995. " Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 53-85, March.
  21. Ambrose, Brent W & Buttimer, Richard J, Jr, 2000. "Embedded Options in the Mortgage Contract," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 95-111, September.
  22. Robert A. Jarrow, 2001. "Counterparty Risk and the Pricing of Defaultable Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1765-1799, October.
  23. Jon Frye, 2000. "Depressing recoveries," Emerging Issues, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Oct.
  24. Barnhill Jr., Theodore M. & Maxwell, William F., 2002. "Modeling correlated market and credit risk in fixed income portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 347-374, March.
  25. Lambrecht, Bart M & Perraudin, William R M & Satchell, Steven, 2003. " Mortgage Default and Possession under Recourse: A Competing Hazards Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 425-42, June.
  26. Kerry D. Vandell & Thomas Thibodeau, 1985. "Estimation of Mortgage Defaults Using Disaggregate Loan History Data," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(3), pages 292-316.
  27. Campbell, Tim S & Dietrich, J Kimball, 1983. " The Determinants of Default on Insured Conventional Residential Mortgage Loans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1569-81, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:45:y:2012:i:3:p:645-677. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Guenther Eichhorn)

or (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.