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Adjusting for teammate effects in evaluating college prospects for the NBA draft

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  • Joseph Kuehn

    (Cal Poly San Luis Obispo)

Abstract

Evaluating amateur basketball players based on their college performances is challenging due to the impact of teammates on observed output. In this paper, I look at the effect that college teammates have on a player’s draft position and develop predictions for NBA player performance that account for these effects. I find that players that score more in college due to their teammates are drafted higher, indicating that college choice can significantly impact a prospect’s draft position. I then use the player predictions in a matching model to evaluate how effectively NBA teams account for complementarities between players when evaluating college talent. The results suggest that teams could improve the offensive value added of their draft picks by 20.33% by better taking into account teammate effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Kuehn, 2023. "Adjusting for teammate effects in evaluating college prospects for the NBA draft," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 295-314, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jproda:v:60:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11123-023-00695-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11123-023-00695-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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