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The Determinants of Motion Picture Box Office Performance: Evidence from Movies Produced in Italy

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  • M. Bagella
  • L. Becchetti

Abstract

The paper provides an empirical analysis of box office performance for movies produced in Italy between 1985 and 1996. Descriptive evidence documents a decrease in the total number of films produced and a sharp reduction in daily revenues and per screen daily admissions during the sample period. In the econometric analysis various alternative hypotheses on the impact of the ex ante popularity of directors and cast of actors on box office performances are rejected in favour of a quadratic specification with positive externalities between the two factors. The econometric cross-sectional evidence also documents that the net impact of subsidies on total admissions is irrelevant and that the significantly lower performance of subsidised films depends on the lower ex ante popularity of their cast and directors. Results on the impact of specialisation genres and production houses show that very few of them (i.e., the comic specialisation genre and the Filmauro production house) have a significant marginal impact on box office performances after controlling director and actors effects. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1999

Suggested Citation

  • M. Bagella & L. Becchetti, 1999. "The Determinants of Motion Picture Box Office Performance: Evidence from Movies Produced in Italy," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 23(4), pages 237-256, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jculte:v:23:y:1999:i:4:p:237-256
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1007579421768
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Alexis Dantec & Florence Levy, 2005. "Stars et box office : un état des approches théoriques et empiriques," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2005-13, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    2. Ana Suárez-Vázquez, 2011. "Critic power or star power? The influence of hallmarks of quality of motion pictures: an experimental approach," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 35(2), pages 119-135, May.
    3. G. Meloni & D. Paolini & M. Pulina, 2015. "The Great Beauty: Public Subsidies in the Italian Movie Industry," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 1(3), pages 445-455, November.
    4. Victor Fernandez-Blanco & Luis Orea & Juan Prieto-Rodriguez, 2013. "Endogeneity and measurement errors when estimating demand functions with average prices: an example from the movie market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1477-1496, June.
    5. Randy Nelson & Robert Glotfelty, 2012. "Movie stars and box office revenues: an empirical analysis," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 36(2), pages 141-166, May.
    6. A. E. Scorcu & R. Zanola, 2011. "Survival in the Cultural Market: The Case of Temporary Exhibitions," Working Paper series 36_11, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    7. Jordi McKenzie & W. Walls, 2013. "Australian films at the Australian box office: performance, distribution, and subsidies," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 37(2), pages 247-269, May.
    8. Fabrizio Montanari & Claudio Giachetti & Fabrizio Castellucci & Stefano Li Pira, 2016. "The moderating effect of economic reputation on middle-status conformity: A study on the Italian film industry," Working Papers 9, Department of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia.
    9. James Jozefowicz & Jason Kelley & Stephanie Brewer, 2008. "New Release: An Empirical Analysis of VHS/DVD Rental Success," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 36(2), pages 139-151, June.
    10. Ralf Dewenter & Michael Westermann, 2005. "Cinema Demand In Germany," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 29(3), pages 213-231, August.
    11. Allègre Hadida, 2010. "Commercial success and artistic recognition of motion picture projects," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 34(1), pages 45-80, February.
    12. Christian Jansen, 2003. "The Performance of German Motion Pictures, Profits, and," Industrial Organization 0302002, EconWPA.
    13. Gazley, Aaron & Clark, Gemma & Sinha, Ashish, 2011. "Understanding preferences for motion pictures," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 64(8), pages 854-861, August.
    14. Daniel Kaimann, 2013. ""To infinity and beyond!"? A genre-specific film analysis of movie success mechanisms," Working Papers CIE 38, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    15. Caroline Elliott & Rob Simmons, 2008. "Determinants of UK Box Office Success: The Impact of Quality Signals," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 33(2), pages 93-111, September.
    16. Brinja Meiseberg & Thomas Ehrmann, 2013. "Diversity in teams and the success of cultural products," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 37(1), pages 61-86, February.
    17. Daniel Kaimann, 2014. ""To infinity and beyond!" A genre-specific film analysis of movie success mechanisms," Working Papers Dissertations 11, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
    18. Cuccia, Tiziana, 2009. "A Contingent Ranking Study on the Preferences of Tourists across Seasons/A Contingent Ranking Study on the Preferences of Tourists across Seasons," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 27, pages 161-176, Abril.
    19. Storz, Cornelia & Riboldazzi, Federico & John, Moritz, 2015. "Mobility and innovation: A cross-country comparison in the video games industry," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 121-137.
    20. Gerda Gemser & Martine Oostrum & Mark Leenders, 2007. "The impact of film reviews on the box office performance of art house versus mainstream motion pictures," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 31(1), pages 43-63, March.
    21. Natalia Gmerek, 2015. "The determinants of Polish movies’ box office performance in Poland," Journal of Marketing and Consumer Behaviour in Emerging Markets, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(1), pages 15-35.
    22. Christian Jansen, 2005. "The Performance of German Motion Pictures, Profits and Subsidies: Some Empirical Evidence," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 29(3), pages 191-212, August.

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