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Characteristics and responses of winners in the Greek tax lottery

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  • Panayiotis Nicolaides

    (Paris School of Economics)

Abstract

The Greek tax lottery incentivises consumers to shift from cash to electronic payments by awarding €1,000 to 1,000 winners every month. Utilising administrative tax data, I analyse the income and occupation characteristics of winners, revealing that the lottery favours high-income taxpayers and the self-employed, who exhibit higher spending levels. Leveraging a unique event of retroactive draws in December 2017, I quantify the winners’ responses after receiving a prize. Low-to-middle-income taxpayers increase their electronic consumption temporarily, indicating that those who are less likely to win respond the most. Self-employed taxpayers with high spending levels halve their electronic consumption, suggesting that winning leads to higher perceived visibility of transactions by the tax authority. Using lottery simulations, I explore ticket ceilings that reduce the concentration of prizes among high-consumption individuals.

Suggested Citation

  • Panayiotis Nicolaides, 2025. "Characteristics and responses of winners in the Greek tax lottery," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 32(4), pages 1030-1075, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:itaxpf:v:32:y:2025:i:4:d:10.1007_s10797-024-09872-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s10797-024-09872-7
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