IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/iecepo/v18y2021i3d10.1007_s10368-021-00515-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Productivity and the pandemic: short-term disruptions and long-term implications

Author

Listed:
  • Klaas Vries

    (The Conference Board)

  • Abdul Erumban

    (University of Groningen)

  • Bart Ark

    (University of Manchester)

Abstract

This paper analyses quarterly estimates of productivity growth at industry level for three advanced economies, France, the UK and the US, for 2020. We use detailed industry-level data to distinguish reallocations of working hours between industries from pure within-industry productivity gains or losses. We find that all three countries showed positive growth rates of aggregate output per hour in 2020 over 2019. However, after removing the effects from the reallocation of hours between low and high productivity industries, only the US still performed positively in terms of within-industry productivity growth. In contrast, the two European economies showed negative within-industry productivity growth rates in 2020. While above-average digital-intensive industries outperformed below-average ones in both France and the UK, the US showed higher productivity growth in both groups compared to the European countries. Industries with medium-intensive levels of shares of employees working from home prior to the pandemic made larger productivity gains in 2020 than industries with the highest pre-pandemic work-from-home shares. Overall, after taking into account the productivity collapse in the hospitality and culture sector during 2020, productivity growth shows no clear deviation from the slowing pre-pandemic productivity trend. Future trends in productivity growth will depend on whether the favourable productivity gains (or smaller losses) in industries with above-average digital intensity will outweigh negative effects from the pandemic, in particular scarring effects on labour markets and business dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaas Vries & Abdul Erumban & Bart Ark, 2021. "Productivity and the pandemic: short-term disruptions and long-term implications," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 541-570, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:18:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s10368-021-00515-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10368-021-00515-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10368-021-00515-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10368-021-00515-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2019. "Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 3-30, Spring.
    2. Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nick & Davis, Steven J., 2020. "Why Working From Home Will Stick," SocArXiv wfdbe, Center for Open Science.
    3. Jianmin Tang & Weimin Wang, 2004. "Sources of aggregate labour productivity growth in Canada and the United States," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 421-444, May.
    4. Joel Blit & Mikal Skuterud & Michael R. Veall, 2020. "The Pandemic and Short-Run Changes in Output, Hours Worked and Labour Productivity: Canadian Evidence by Industry," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 39, pages 16-32, Fall.
    5. Hensvik, Lena & Le Barbanchon, Thomas & Rathelot, Roland, 2020. "Which jobs are done from home? Evidence from the American Time Use Survey?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1261, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    6. Bart van Ark & Klaas de Vries & Abdul Erumban, 2019. "Productivity & Innovation Competencies in the Midst of the Digital Transformation Age: A EU-US Comparison," European Economy - Discussion Papers 119, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    7. Ricardo de Avillez, 2012. "Sectoral Contributions to Labour Productivity Growth: Does the Choice of Decomposition Formula Matter?," CSLS Research Reports 2012-09, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    8. Kevin J. Stiroh, 2002. "Information Technology and the U.S. Productivity Revival: What Do the Industry Data Say?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1559-1576, December.
    9. Matilde Mas & Robert Stehrer (ed.), 2012. "Industrial Productivity in Europe," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14369.
    10. Flavio Calvino & Chiara Criscuolo & Luca Marcolin & Mariagrazia Squicciarini, 2018. "A taxonomy of digital intensive sectors," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2018/14, OECD Publishing.
    11. Marshall Reinsdorf, 2015. "Measuring Industry Contributions to Labour Productivity Change: A New Formula in a Chained Fisher Index Framework," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 28, pages 3-26, Spring.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vinish Kathuria & Rajesh Raj Natarajan, 2022. "What Role Has Structural Change Played in Growth Accelerations for the Indian States? An Analysis for Pre- and Post-liberalization Periods," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 23(1), pages 61-85, March.
    2. Chiang Kao & Yuan-Ying Wang & Tsai-Chi Ho & Yu-Shian Chen & Ping-Chieh Chen, 2022. "The Impact Of Covid-19 On The Productivity Of Large Companies In Taiwan," Economy & Business Journal, International Scientific Publications, Bulgaria, vol. 16(1), pages 30-40.
    3. Peter Goodridge & Jonathan Haskel, 2023. "Accounting for the slowdown in UK innovation and productivity," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(359), pages 780-812, July.
    4. Tomoyuki Yagi & Kakuho Furukawa & Jouchi Nakajima, 2022. "Productivity Trends in Japan - Reviewing Recent Facts and the Prospects for the Post-COVID-19 Era -," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-10, Bank of Japan.
    5. Diane Coyle & Jen‐Chung Mei, 2023. "Diagnosing the UK productivity slowdown: which sectors matter and why?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(359), pages 813-850, July.
    6. Bart van Ark & Dirk Pilat & Klaas de Vries, 2023. "Are Pro-Productivity Policies Fit for Purpose? Productivity Drivers and Policies in G-20 Economies," Working Papers 038, The Productivity Institute.
    7. Eichengreen, Barry, 2022. "COVID and the outlook for emerging markets," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 820-826.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bart van Ark & Klaas de Vries & Abdul Erumban, 2021. "Productivity and the Pandemic - Short-Term Disruptions and Long-Term Implications. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on productivity dynamics by industry," Working Papers 007, The Productivity Institute.
    2. Diane Coyle & Jen‐Chung Mei, 2023. "Diagnosing the UK productivity slowdown: which sectors matter and why?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(359), pages 813-850, July.
    3. Alexander Murray, 2017. "What Explains the Post-2004 U.S.Productivity Slowdown?," CSLS Research Reports 2017-05, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    4. John R. Baldwin & Michael Willox, 2016. "The Industry Origins of Canada's Weaker Labour Productivity Performance and the Role of Structural Adjustment in the Post-2000 Period," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 31, pages 19-36, Fall.
    5. Matthew Calver and Alexander Murray, 2016. "Decomposing Multifactor Productivity Growth in Canada by Industry and Province, 1997-2014," CSLS Research Reports 2016-19, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    6. Ilya B. Voskoboynikov, 2020. "Structural Change, Expanding Informality and Labor Productivity Growth in Russia," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(2), pages 394-417, June.
    7. Bert Balk, 2014. "Dissecting aggregate output and labour productivity change," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 35-43, August.
    8. repec:gdk:wpaper:66 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Jianmin Tang & Weimin Wang, 2015. "Economic Growth in Canada and the United States: Supply-Push or Demand-Pull?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 61(4), pages 773-798, December.
    10. Marshall Reinsdorf, 2015. "Measuring Industry Contributions to Labour Productivity Change: A New Formula in a Chained Fisher Index Framework," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 28, pages 3-26, Spring.
    11. Elstner, Steffen & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2018. "The German productivity paradox: Facts and explanations," Ruhr Economic Papers 767, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    12. Elstner, Steffen & Grimme, Christian & Kecht, Valentin & Lehmann, Robert, 2022. "The diffusion of technological progress in ICT," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    13. Bergeaud, Antonin & Eyméoud, Jean-Benoît & Garcia, Thomas & Henricot, Dorian, 2023. "Working from home and corporate real estate," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    14. Richard Dion & Robert Fay, 2008. "Understanding Productivity: A Review of Recent Technical Research," Discussion Papers 08-3, Bank of Canada.
    15. Murciano-Goroff, Raviv & Zhuo, Ran & Greenstein, Shane, 2021. "Hidden software and veiled value creation: Illustrations from server software usage," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(9).
    16. Peter Goodridge & Jonathan Haskel, 2023. "Accounting for the slowdown in UK innovation and productivity," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(359), pages 780-812, July.
    17. Barry, John W. & Campello, Murillo & Graham, John R. & Ma, Yueran, 2022. "Corporate flexibility in a time of crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 780-806.
    18. Alicia García-Herrero & Josep Vilarrubia Author-Workplace-Name: Banco Central de la República Argentina, 2007. "The Laffer Curve of Macroeconomic Volatility and Growth: Can it be Explained by the Different Nature of Crises?," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 43-60, January-J.
    19. Izabela Mlynarzewska- Borowiec, 2021. "Direct and Indirect Impact of ICT on EU’s Productivity Growth," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 4), pages 278-287.
    20. W. Diewert, 2015. "Decompositions of productivity growth into sectoral effects," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 367-387, June.
    21. Ilya B. Voskoboynikov, 2020. "Structural Change, Expanding Informality and Labor Productivity Growth in Russia," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(2), pages 394-417, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Productivity; Pandemic; Labour reallocation; Digital transformation; Work-from-home;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:iecepo:v:18:y:2021:i:3:d:10.1007_s10368-021-00515-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.