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Convergence Speed and Growth Patterns: A Dynamical Systems Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Javier García-Algarra

    (Centro Universitario de Tecnología y Arte Digital)

  • Gonzalo Gómez-Bengoechea

    (Universidad Pontificia Comillas - ICADE)

  • Mary Luz Mouronte-López

    (Universidad Francisco de Vitoria)

Abstract

The middle-income trap is an empirical economic phenomenon characterized by the slowdown in the growth trend of a given country. There are different definitions of a stagnant economy, but they all require an anti-causal computation and are binary by nature. This paper proposes a general approach based on past values of GDP or GNI relative to a high-income country to detect not only middle-income traps but also paths that lead to potential stagnation. We characterize growth patterns and identify the development stage of different countries and regions using the conceptual and mathematical framework of dynamical systems theory. The results show a strong correlation between the fastest-converging economies and their investment attractiveness.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier García-Algarra & Gonzalo Gómez-Bengoechea & Mary Luz Mouronte-López, 2025. "Convergence Speed and Growth Patterns: A Dynamical Systems Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 65(2), pages 615-636, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:65:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s10614-023-10434-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10614-023-10434-y
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic convergence; Growth patterns; Middle-income traps; Investment attractiveness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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