IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/atlecj/v48y2020i4d10.1007_s11293-020-09687-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Survival, Attrition and Biased Decision-Making

Author

Listed:
  • Dmitriy Krichevskiy

    (Elizabethtown College)

Abstract

This paper considers the persistence of earnings differentials between wage earners and the self-employed through modeling overconfidence. The model examines challenges of limited information and its impact in the decision-making process. Using a Bayesian setting and concentrating specifically on the entrepreneur’s entry decision, the model shows how limited information can lead to substantial overestimation of potential profits and other outcomes even if the decision-maker has unbiased prior beliefs. The driving force behind the conclusion is the assumption that decision-makers, such as entrepreneurs, are not aware that available information is limited. For entrepreneurship, the resulting bias leads to overconfidence, excessive entry and the persistence of lower returns to entrepreneurship when compared to returns in the wage sector. This situation may arise wherever attrition is present, from military to business schools to medicine. Going the extra mile to gather and incorporate all relevant information into decision-making pays off in better quality decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Dmitriy Krichevskiy, 2020. "Survival, Attrition and Biased Decision-Making," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 48(4), pages 503-517, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:48:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s11293-020-09687-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11293-020-09687-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11293-020-09687-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11293-020-09687-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dunne, Timothy & Roberts, Mark J & Samuelson, Larry, 1989. "Plant Turnover and Gross Employment Flows in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 48-71, January.
    2. Steven Klepper & Kenneth L. Simons, 2000. "The Making of an Oligopoly: Firm Survival and Technological Change in the Evolution of the U.S. Tire Industry," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(4), pages 728-760, August.
    3. Kihlstrom, Richard E & Laffont, Jean-Jacques, 1979. "A General Equilibrium Entrepreneurial Theory of Firm Formation Based on Risk Aversion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(4), pages 719-748, August.
    4. Robert A. Lowe & Arvids A. Ziedonis, 2006. "Overoptimism and the Performance of Entrepreneurial Firms," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(2), pages 173-186, February.
    5. Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2001. "On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 301-330, September.
    6. Michael J. Brennan & Walter N. Torous, 1999. "Individual Decision Making and Investor Welfare," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 28(2), pages 119-143, July.
    7. Cooper, Arnold C. & Folta, Timothy B. & Woo, Carolyn, 1995. "Entrepreneurial information search," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 107-120, March.
    8. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 261-292.
    9. Matthew Rabin, 1998. "Psychology and Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 11-46, March.
    10. Baldwin, John R. Bian, Lin Dupuy, Richard Gellatly, Guy, 2000. "Failure Rates for New Canadian Firms: New Perspectives on Entry and Exit," Failure Rates for New Canadian Firms: New Perspectives on Entry and Exit, Statistics Canada, Economic Analysis Division, number stcb5e.
    11. Steve Selvin, 1976. "A Graphical Estimate of the Population Mean from Censored Normal Data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 25(1), pages 8-11, March.
    12. Samuelson, William & Zeckhauser, Richard, 1988. "Status Quo Bias in Decision Making," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 7-59, March.
    13. Adam Smith, 2005. "From The Wealth of Nations," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Guang-Zhen Sun (ed.), Readings In The Economics Of The Division Of Labor The Classical Tradition, chapter 13, pages 93-123, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Horvath, Michael & Schivardi, Fabiano & Woywode, Michael, 2001. "On industry life-cycles: delay, entry, and shakeout in beer brewing," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 1023-1052, July.
    15. Eric Van den Steen, 2004. "Rational Overoptimism (and Other Biases)," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1141-1151, September.
    16. Puri, Manju & Robinson, David T., 2007. "Optimism and economic choice," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 71-99, October.
    17. Jerker Denrell, 2003. "Vicarious Learning, Undersampling of Failure, and the Myths of Management," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 14(3), pages 227-243, June.
    18. Matthew Rabin, 1998. "Psychology and Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 11-46, March.
    19. Brenner, Lyle A. & Koehler, Derek J. & Liberman, Varda & Tversky, Amos, 1996. "Overconfidence in Probability and Frequency Judgments: A Critical Examination," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 212-219, March.
    20. Barton H. Hamilton, 2000. "Does Entrepreneurship Pay? An Empirical Analysis of the Returns to Self-Employment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(3), pages 604-631, June.
    21. John S. Chen & David C. Croson & Daniel W. Elfenbein & Hart E. Posen, 2018. "The Impact of Learning and Overconfidence on Entrepreneurial Entry and Exit," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(6), pages 989-1009, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michele Dell'Era & Luca David Opromolla & Luís Santos‐Pinto, 2023. "Can optimism solve the entrepreneurial earnings puzzle?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(1), pages 139-169, January.
    2. David Hirshleifer & Angie Low & Siew Hong Teoh, 2012. "Are Overconfident CEOs Better Innovators?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1457-1498, August.
    3. Hyytinen, Ari & Lahtonen, Jukka & Pajarinen, Mika, 2012. "Entrepreneurial optimism and survival," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/2012, Bank of Finland.
    4. Hyytinen, Ari & Lahtonen, Jukka & Pajarinen, Mika, 2012. "Entrepreneurial optimism and survival," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 20/2012, Bank of Finland.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2012_020 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Verheul, I. & Carree, M.A., 2008. "Overoptimism among Founders: The Role of Information and Motivation," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2008-008-ORG, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    7. Stefano DellaVigna, 2009. "Psychology and Economics: Evidence from the Field," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 315-372, June.
    8. Kuechle, Graciela, 2011. "Persistence and heterogeneity in entrepreneurship: An evolutionary game theoretic analysis," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 458-471, July.
    9. Pindard-Lejarraga, Maud & Lejarraga, José, 2024. "Information source and entrepreneurial performance expectations: Experience-based versus description-based opportunity evaluations," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    10. Cédric Gutierrez & Thomas Åstebro & Tomasz Obloj, 2020. "The Impact of Overconfidence and Ambiguity Attitude on Market Entry," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 308-329, March.
    11. Markus M. Möbius & Muriel Niederle & Paul Niehaus & Tanya S. Rosenblat, 2022. "Managing Self-Confidence: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 7793-7817, November.
    12. Stephen X. Zhang & Javier Cueto, 2017. "The Study of Bias in Entrepreneurship," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 41(3), pages 419-454, May.
    13. Rietveld, C.A. & Groenen, P.J.F. & Koellinger, Ph.D. & van der Loos, M.J.H.M. & Thurik, A.R., 2013. "Living Forever: Entrepreneurial Overconfidence at Older Ages," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2013-012-STR, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    14. Martin Koudstaal & Randolph Sloof & Mirjam van Praag, 2015. "Are Entrepreneurs more Optimistic and Overconfident than Managers and Employees?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-124/VII, Tinbergen Institute.
    15. Anne Chwolka & Matthias G. Raith, 2023. "Overconfidence as a driver of entrepreneurial market entry decisions: a critical appraisal," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 985-1016, April.
    16. Alberto Galasso & Timothy S. Simcoe, 2010. "CEO Overconfidence and Innovation," NBER Working Papers 16041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Sari Pekkala Kerr & William R. Kerr & Tina Xu, 2017. "Personality Traits of Entrepreneurs: A Review of Recent Literature," NBER Working Papers 24097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Diego Salzman, 2013. "Behavioural Real Estate," ERES eres2013_334, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    19. Diego A. Salzman & Remco C.J. Zwinkels, 2013. "Behavioural Real Estate," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-088/IV/DSF58, Tinbergen Institute.
    20. Oliver Thomas, 2018. "Two decades of cognitive bias research in entrepreneurship: What do we know and where do we go from here?," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 68(2), pages 107-143, April.
    21. Jose Apesteguia & Miguel Ballester, 2009. "A theory of reference-dependent behavior," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 40(3), pages 427-455, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:48:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s11293-020-09687-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.