IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/atlecj/v32y2004i2p89-99.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Data errors in small data sets can determine empirical findings

Author

Listed:
  • Ling He
  • Joseph McGarrity

Abstract

This paper provides an example of a model that yields widely divergent estimates when different stock market indexes are used to calculate two independent variables in Romer's [1990] model. Her model sought to explain consumer durable good production before the Great Crash (31 observations). She used the Cowles Commissions Series P Stock Price Index to calculate two independent variables. However, when this paper uses the S&P Index to calculate these variables, its estimates completely contradict Romer's findings. It discovered that one incorrect monthly observation in the S&P Index is responsible for this difference. It also found that robustness techniques serve to limit the impact of the errant observation, illustrating the importance of using robustness techniques in small data sets. Copyright International Atlantic Economic Society 2004

Suggested Citation

  • Ling He & Joseph McGarrity, 2004. "Data errors in small data sets can determine empirical findings," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 32(2), pages 89-99, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:32:y:2004:i:2:p:89-99
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02298827
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/BF02298827
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/BF02298827?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kaul, Gautam, 1987. "Stock returns and inflation : The role of the monetary sector," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 253-276, June.
    2. Coppock, Lee & Poitras, Marc, 2000. "Evaluating the Fisher effect in long-term cross-country averages," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 181-192.
    3. Christina D. Romer, 1990. "The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(3), pages 597-624.
    4. Roy E. Welsch, 1980. "Regression Sensitivity Analysis and Bounded-Influence Estimation," NBER Chapters, in: Evaluation of Econometric Models, pages 153-167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    6. Pindyck, Robert S, 1991. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 1110-1148, September.
    7. Geske, Robert & Roll, Richard, 1983. "The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-33, March.
    8. Schwert, G William, 1990. "Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1237-1257, September.
    9. Huang, Roger D & Kracaw, William A, 1984. "Stock Market Returns and Real Activity: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 267-273, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. David W. Findlay & John M. Santos, 2012. "Supplement to "Race, Ethnicity, and Baseball Card Prices: A Replication, Correction, and Extension of Hewitt, Muñoz, Oliver, and Regoli"," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 9(2), pages 1-18, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:kap:iaecre:v:11:y:2005:i:4:p:379-398 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ling He & Joseph McGarrity, 2005. "A Reexamination of the Wealth Effect and Uncertainty Effect," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 11(4), pages 379-398, November.
    3. Davis, E. Philip & Madsen, Jakob B., 2008. "Productivity and equity market fundamentals: 80 years of evidence for 11 OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1261-1283, December.
    4. James R. Booth & Lena Chua Booth, 1997. "Economic factors, monetary policy and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 32-42.
    5. Qureshi, Fiza & Khan, Habib Hussain & Rehman, Ijaz Ur & Ghafoor, Abdul & Qureshi, Saba, 2019. "Mutual fund flows and investors’ expectations in BRICS economies: Implications for international diversification," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 130-150.
    6. Domian, Dale L. & Louton, David A., 1997. "A threshold autoregressive analysis of stock returns and real economic activity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 167-179.
    7. Jank, Stephan, 2012. "Mutual fund flows, expected returns, and the real economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 3060-3070.
    8. Jensen, Gerald R. & Mercer, Jeffrey M. & Johnson, Robert R., 1996. "Business conditions, monetary policy, and expected security returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 213-237, February.
    9. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Dene Hurley & Román Ferrer, 2021. "U.S. stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals: Fresh evidence using the quantile ARDL approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3569-3587, July.
    10. Shakizada Niyazbekova & Igor Grekov & Tatiana Blokhina, 2016. "The Influence Of Macroeconomic Factors To The Dynamics Of Stock Exchange In The Republic Of Kazakhstan," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 1263-1273.
    11. Kim, Dongcheol & Roh, Tai-Yong & Min, Byoung-Kyu & Byun, Suk-Joon, 2014. "Time-varying expected momentum profits," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 191-215.
    12. Lee, Hyunchul, 2021. "Time-varying comovement of stock and treasury bond markets in Europe: A quantile regression approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1-20.
    13. Zhu, Sheng & Gao, Jun & Sherman, Meadhbh, 2020. "The role of future economic conditions in the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from the US and UK," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    14. Mustapha Ibn Boamah, 2017. "Common Stocks and Inflation: An Empirical Analysis of G7 and BRICS," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 45(2), pages 213-224, June.
    15. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    16. Andreas Humpe & Peter Macmillan, 2007. "Can macroeconomic variables explain long term stock market movements? A comparison of the US and Japan," CDMA Working Paper Series 200720, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    17. Martin Hoesli & Colin Lizieri & Bryan MacGregor, 2008. "The Inflation Hedging Characteristics of US and UK Investments: A Multi-Factor Error Correction Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 183-206, February.
    18. Osamah M. Al-Khazali, 2003. "Stock Prices, Inflation, and Output: Evidence from the Emerging Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 2(3), pages 287-314, September.
    19. Mili, Mehdi & Sahut, Jean-Michel & Teulon, Frédéric, 2012. "Non linear and asymmetric linkages between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions: New evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 734-741.
    20. Adel A. Al-Sharkas & Marwan Al-Zoubi, 2011. "Stock Prices and Inflation: Evidence from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Morocco," Working Papers 653, Economic Research Forum, revised 12 Jan 2011.
    21. Jay Choi, Jongmoo & Hauser, Shmuel & Kopecky, Kenneth J., 1999. "Does the stock market predict real activity? Time series evidence from the G-7 countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 1771-1792, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:atlecj:v:32:y:2004:i:2:p:89-99. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.