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Forecasting for the LCD monitor market

Author

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  • Shin-Lian Lo

    (Department of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, National Tsing-Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan, ROC)

  • Fu-Kwun Wang

    (Department of Industrial Management, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC)

  • James T. Lin

    (Department of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, National Tsing-Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan, ROC)

Abstract

The TFT-LCD (thin-film transistor-liquid crystal display) industry is one of the key global industries with products that have high clock speed. In this research, the LCD monitor market is considered for an empirical study on hierarchical forecasting (HF). The proposed HF methodology consists of five steps. First, the three hierarchical levels of the LCD monitor market are identified. Second, several exogenously driven factors that significantly affect the demand for LCD monitors are identified at each level of product hierarchy. Third, the three forecasting techniques-regression analysis, transfer function, and simultaneous equations model-are combined to forecast future demand at each hierarchical level. Fourth, various forecasting approaches and disaggregating proportion methods are adopted to obtain consistent demand forecasts at each hierarchical level. Finally, the forecast errors with different forecasting approaches are assessed in order to determine the best forecasting level and the best forecasting approach. The findings show that the best forecast results can be obtained by using the middle-out forecasting approach. These results could guide LCD manufacturers and brand owners on ways to forecast future market demands. Copyright 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Shin-Lian Lo & Fu-Kwun Wang & James T. Lin, 2008. "Forecasting for the LCD monitor market," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 341-356.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:27:y:2008:i:4:p:341-356
    DOI: 10.1002/for.1055
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dangerfield, Byron J. & Morris, John S., 1992. "Top-down or bottom-up: Aggregate versus disaggregate extrapolations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 233-241, October.
    2. Douglas M. Dunn & William H. Williams & W. Allen Spivey, 1971. "Analysis and Prediction of Telephone Demand in Local Geographical Areas," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 2(2), pages 561-576, Autumn.
    3. Zotteri, Giulio & Kalchschmidt, Matteo & Caniato, Federico, 2005. "The impact of aggregation level on forecasting performance," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 479-491, January.
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    1. Chen, Argon & Blue, Jakey, 2010. "Performance analysis of demand planning approaches for aggregating, forecasting and disaggregating interrelated demands," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 586-602, December.
    2. Lin, James T. & Chen, Tzu-Li & Lin, Yen-Ting, 2009. "Critical material planning for TFT-LCD production industry," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 639-655, December.

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