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A cautionary note on outlier robust estimation of threshold models

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  • Paolo Giordani

    (University of New South Wales, Australia)

Abstract

Chan and Cheung (1994) propose a GM approach to outlier robust estimation of threshold models. We show that their estimator can be inconsistent and extremely inefficient even when the model is correctly specified and the disturbances are normally distributed, and outline situations in which the problem is likely to be more severe. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Paolo Giordani, 2006. "A cautionary note on outlier robust estimation of threshold models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 37-47.
    • Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:25:y:2006:i:1:p:37-47
    DOI: 10.1002/for.972
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-645, August.
    2. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
    3. Kapetanios, George, 2000. "Small sample properties of the conditional least squares estimator in SETAR models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 267-276, December.
    4. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521770415.
    5. Van Dijk, Dick & Franses, Philip Hans & Lucas, Andre, 1999. "Testing for Smooth Transition Nonlinearity in the Presence of Outliers," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(2), pages 217-235, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Luigi Grossi & Fany Nan, 2017. "Forecasting electricity prices through robust nonlinear models," Working Papers 06/2017, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    2. Luigi Grossi & Fany Nan, 2018. "The influence of renewables on electricity price forecasting: a robust approach," Working Papers 2018/10, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    3. Zhang, Li-Xin & Chan, Wai-Sum & Cheung, Siu-Hung & Hung, King-Chi, 2009. "A note on the consistency of a robust estimator for threshold autoregressive processes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(6), pages 807-813, March.
    4. Grossi, Luigi & Nan, Fany, 2019. "Robust forecasting of electricity prices: Simulations, models and the impact of renewable sources," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 305-318.

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