Multicriteria methods for technology foresight
In recent years, many countries have carried out foresight exercises to better exploit scientific and technological opportunities. Often, these exercises have sought to identify 'critical' or 'key' technologies or, more broadly, to establish research priorities. In this paper, we consider the potential of multicriteria decision-making methods in this kind of priority-determination and examine the limitations of these methods in the foresight context. We also provide results from a combined evaluation and foresight study where multicriteria methods were deployed to support the shaping of research and technology development activities in the Finnish forestry and forest industry. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume (Year): 22 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2-3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- James S. Dyer, 1990. "Remarks on the Analytic Hierarchy Process," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(3), pages 249-258, March.
- Tarja Joro & Pekka Korhonen & Jyrki Wallenius, 1998. "Structural Comparison of Data Envelopment Analysis and Multiple Objective Linear Programming," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(7), pages 962-970, July.
- Bana e Costa, Carlos A. & Ensslin, Leonardo & Correa, Emerson C. & Vansnick, Jean-Claude, 1999. "Decision Support Systems in action: Integrated application in a multicriteria decision aid process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 315-335, March.
- Kerstin Cuhls, 2003. "From forecasting to foresight processes-new participative foresight activities in Germany," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2-3), pages 93-111.
- Salo, Ahti A., 1995. "Interactive decision aiding for group decision support," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 134-149, July.
- Stewart, TJ, 1992. "A critical survey on the status of multiple criteria decision making theory and practice," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 20(5-6), pages 569-586.
- Geurts, Jac. L. A. & Joldersma, Cisca, 2001. "Methodology for participatory policy analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 300-310, January.
- Charnes, A. & Cooper, W. W. & Rhodes, E., 1978. "Measuring the efficiency of decision making units," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 2(6), pages 429-444, November.
- Yoram Wind & Thomas L. Saaty, 1980. "Marketing Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(7), pages 641-658, July.
- Bunn, Derek W. & Salo, Ahti A., 1993. "Forecasting with scenarios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 291-303, August.
- Thomas Durand, 2003. "Twelve lessons from 'Key Technologies 2005': the French technology foresight exercise," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2-3), pages 161-177.
- Frank Hartwich & Willem Janssen, 2000. "Setting research priorities: an example from agriculture using the Analytic Hierarchy Process," Research Evaluation, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 201-210, December.
- Blair, Andrew R. & Nachtmann, Robert & Olson, Josephine E. & Saaty, Thomas L., 1987. "Forecasting foreign exchange rates: an expert judgment approach," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 363-369.
- Zofio, Jose L. & Prieto, Angel M., 2001. "Environmental efficiency and regulatory standards: the case of CO2 emissions from OECD industries," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 63-83, January.
- James S. Dyer, 1990. "A Clarification of "Remarks on the Analytic Hierarchy Process"," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(3), pages 274-275, March.
- Millet, Ido & Harker, Patrick T., 1990. "Globally effective questioning in the Analytic Hierarchy Process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 88-97, September.
- Frieder Meyer-Krahmer & Thomas Reiss, 1992. "Ex ante evaluation and technology assessment — two emerging elements of technology policy evaluation," Research Evaluation, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 47-54, April.
- Ramanathan, R. & Ganesh, L. S., 1995. "Using AHP for resource allocation problems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 410-417, January.
- Ramanathan, R, 2001. "Comparative Risk Assessment of energy supply technologies: a Data Envelopment Analysis approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 197-203.
- Michael Keenan, 2003. "Identifying emerging generic technologies at the national level: the UK experience," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2-3), pages 129-160.
- Steven W. Popper & Caroline S. Wagner, 2003. "Identifying critical technologies in the United States: a review of the federal effort," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2-3), pages 113-128.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:22:y:2003:i:2-3:p:235-255. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.