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Housing Prices in Tokyo: A Comparison of Hedonic and Repeat Sales Measures

Author

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  • Shimizu Chihiro

    (Associate Professor, The International School of Economics and Business Administration, Reitaku University, Hikarigaoka2-1-1, Kashiwa-city, Chiba 277-8686, Japan)

  • Nishimura Kiyohiko G.

    (Deputy Governor, The Bank of Japan,NihonbashiHongokucho2- 1-1, Chuo-Ku, Tokyo 103-8660, Japan)

  • Watanabe Tsutomu

    (Professor, Faculty of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, Naka 2-1, Kunitachi-city, Tokyo 186-8603, Japan)

Abstract

Do indexes of house prices behave differently depending on the estimation method? If so, to what extent? To address these questions, we use a unique dataset that we compiled from individual listings in a widely circulated real estate advertisement magazine. The dataset contains more than 470,000 listings of housing prices between 1986 and 2008, including the period of the housing bubble and its burst.We find that there exists a substantial discrepancy in terms of turning points between hedonic and repeat sales indexes, even though the hedonic index is adjusted for structural changes and the repeat sales index is adjusted in the way Case and Shiller suggested. Specifically, the repeat sales measure signals turning points later than the hedonic measure: for example, the hedonic measure of condominium prices bottomed out at the beginning of 2002, while the corresponding repeat sales measure exhibits a reversal only in the spring of 2004. This discrepancy cannot be fully removed even if we adjust the repeat sales index for depreciation.

Suggested Citation

  • Shimizu Chihiro & Nishimura Kiyohiko G. & Watanabe Tsutomu, 2010. "Housing Prices in Tokyo: A Comparison of Hedonic and Repeat Sales Measures," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(6), pages 792-813, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:230:y:2010:i:6:p:792-813
    DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2010-0612
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    Cited by:

    1. Yongheng Deng, 2012. "Discussant remarks on Chihiro Shimizu, Kiyohiko G Nishimura and Tsutomu Watanabe’s paper House prices from magazines, realtors,and the Land Registry," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Property markets and financial stability, volume 64, pages 39-41, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Diewert, W. Erwin & Shimizu, Chihiro, 2016. "Hedonic regression models for Tokyo condominium sales," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 300-315.
    3. Diewert, Erwin & Shimizu, Chihiro, 2015. "Residential Property Price Indices For Tokyo," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(8), pages 1659-1714, December.
    4. Robert Hill, 2013. "How Can One Tell When the Housing Market Is Out of Equilibrium?," ERES eres2013_59, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    5. Erwin Diewert & Chihiro Shimizu, 2017. "Alternative Approaches to Commercial Property Price Indexes for Tokyo," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 63(3), pages 492-519, September.
    6. Mick Silver, 2016. "How to Better Measure Hedonic Residential Property Price Indexes," IMF Working Papers 2016/213, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Diewert, Erwin, 2019. "Quality Adjustment and Hedonics: A Unified Approach," Microeconomics.ca working papers erwin_diewert-2019-2, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 14 Mar 2019.
    8. Takaaki Ohnishi & Takayuki Mizuno & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2012. "Detecting Real Estate Bubbles: A New Approach Based on the Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Property Prices," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 006, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics, revised Apr 2013.
    9. Erwin Diewert & Chihiro Shimizu, 2020. "Alternative Land‐Price Indexes for Commercial Properties in Tokyo," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(4), pages 784-824, December.
    10. Robert J. Hill & Alicia N. Rambaldi & Michael Scholz, 2021. "Higher frequency hedonic property price indices: a state-space approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 417-441, July.
    11. Diewert, W. Erwin & Nishimura , Kiyohiko & Shimizu, Chihiro & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2014. "Residential Property Price Indexes for Japan: An Outline of the Japanese Official RPPI," Economics working papers erwin_diewert-2014-17, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 27 Mar 2014.
    12. Benjamin Patrick Evans & Kirill Glavatskiy & Michael S. Harré & Mikhail Prokopenko, 2023. "The impact of social influence in Australian real estate: market forecasting with a spatial agent-based model," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 18(1), pages 5-57, January.
    13. Suzuki, Masatomo & Asami, Yasushi & Shimizu, Chihiro, 2021. "Housing rent rigidity under downward pressure: Unit-level longitudinal evidence from Tokyo," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    14. W. Erwin Diewert & Chihiro Shimizu, 2022. "Residential Property Price Indexes: Spatial Coordinates Versus Neighborhood Dummy Variables," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(3), pages 770-796, September.
    15. Burnett-Isaacs,, Kate & Diewert, Erwin & Huang, Ning, 2017. "Alternative Approaches for Resale Housing Price Indexes," Microeconomics.ca working papers erwin_diewert-2017-6, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 08 May 2017.
    16. W. Erwin Diewert & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2020. "The System of National Accounts and Alternative Approaches to the Construction of Commercial Property Price Indexes," Advances in Japanese Business and Economics, in: Property Price Index, chapter 0, pages 181-219, Springer.
    17. Takaaki Ohnishi & Takayuki Mizuno & Chihiro Shimizu & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2013. "Detecting Real Estate Bubbles: A New Approach Based on the Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Property Prices," CARF F-Series CARF-F-313, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    18. Takaaki Ohnishi & Takayuki Mizuno & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2019. "House Price Dispersion in Boom-Bust Cycles: Evidence from Tokyo," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 008, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    19. Siu Kei Wong & K. W. Chau & K. Karato & C. Shimizu, 2018. "Separating the Age Effect from a Repeat Sales Index: Land and Structure Decomposition," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 351-366, October.
    20. Wong, SK & Chau, KW & Karato, K & Shimizu, Chihiro, 2013. "Separating the Age Effect from a Repeat Sales Index: Land and Structure Decomposition," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 5, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    21. Takaaki Ohnishi & Takayuki Mizuno & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2020. "House price dispersion in boom–bust cycles: evidence from Tokyo," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 71(4), pages 511-539, October.
    22. Shimizu, Chihiro & Nishimura, Kiyohiko G. & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2016. "House prices at different stages of the buying/selling process," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 37-53.
    23. Chihiro Shimizu & Kiyohiko G Nishimura & Tsutomu Watanabe1, 2012. "House prices from magazines, realtors,and the Land Registry," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Property markets and financial stability, volume 64, pages 29-38, Bank for International Settlements.
    24. Takaaki Ohnishi & Takayuki Mizuno & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2019. "House Price Dispersion in Boom-Bust Cycles: Evidence from Tokyo," CARF F-Series CARF-F-461, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    25. Binge, Laurie H. & Boshoff, Willem H., 2021. "Measuring alternative asset prices in an emerging market: The case of the South African art market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).

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