IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ororsc/v23y2012i6p1733-1747.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Entrepreneurial Success and Failure: Confidence and Fallible Judgment

Author

Listed:
  • Robin M. Hogarth

    () (Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 08005 Barcelona, Spain)

  • Natalia Karelaia

    () (INSEAD, 77305 Fontainebleau, France)

Abstract

Excess entry—or the high failure rate of market entry decisions—is often attributed to overconfidence exhibited by entrepreneurs. Assuming that these decisions depend on assessments of business opportunities, we model boundedly rational entrepreneurs and show analytically that, whereas excess entry is an inevitable consequence of imperfect judgment, it does not necessarily imply overconfidence. Indeed, judgmental fallibility can lead to excess entry even when all potential entrepreneurs are underconfident. We further demonstrate that, as a group, individuals who decide to start a new business exhibit more confidence than those who do not and that successful entrants are less confident than failures. Our results therefore question general claims that overconfidence leads to excess entry. We conclude by emphasizing the need to understand the role of judgmental fallibility in producing economic outcomes and implications for both venture capitalists and the training of entrepreneurs.

Suggested Citation

  • Robin M. Hogarth & Natalia Karelaia, 2012. "Entrepreneurial Success and Failure: Confidence and Fallible Judgment," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(6), pages 1733-1747, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ororsc:v:23:y:2012:i:6:p:1733-1747
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/orsc.1110.0702
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sarasvathy, D. K. & Simon, Herbert A. & Lave, Lester, 1998. "Perceiving and managing business risks: differences between entrepreneurs and bankers," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 207-225, January.
    2. Dennis, William Jr., 1997. "More than you think: An inclusive estimate of business entries," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 175-196, May.
    3. Duchesneau, Donald A. & Gartner, William B., 1990. "A profile of new venture success and failure in an emerging industry," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 5(5), pages 297-312, September.
    4. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-670, May.
    5. Koellinger, Philipp & Minniti, Maria & Schade, Christian, 2007. ""I think I can, I think I can": Overconfidence and entrepreneurial behavior," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 502-527, August.
    6. Palich, Leslie E. & Ray Bagby, D., 1995. "Using cognitive theory to explain entrepreneurial risk-taking: Challenging conventional wisdom," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 10(6), pages 425-438, November.
    7. Cooper, Arnold C. & Woo, Carolyn Y. & Dunkelberg, William C., 1988. "Entrepreneurs' perceived chances for success," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 97-108.
    8. Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2001. "On the Evolution of Overconfidence and Entrepreneurs," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 301-330, September.
    9. Klepper, Steven, 1996. "Entry, Exit, Growth, and Innovation over the Product Life Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 562-583, June.
    10. Don A. Moore & John M. Oesch & Charlene Zietsma, 2007. "What Competition? Myopic Self-Focus in Market-Entry Decisions," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(3), pages 440-454, June.
    11. Norton, William I, Jr & Moore, William T, 2002. "Entrepreneurial Risk: Have We Been Asking the Wrong Question?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 281-287, June.
    12. Geroski, P. A., 1995. "What do we know about entry?," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 421-440, December.
    13. Erik Hoelzl & Aldo Rustichini, 2005. "Overconfident: Do You Put Your Money On It?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(503), pages 305-318, April.
    14. Khan, Arshad M., 1987. "Assessing venture capital investments with noncompensatory behavioral decision models," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 193-205.
    15. Brian Wu & Anne Marie Knott, 2006. "Entrepreneurial Risk and Market Entry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(9), pages 1315-1330, September.
    16. Dan Lovallo & Colin Camerer, 1999. "Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 306-318, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sabrina Artinger & Thomas C. Powell, 2016. "Entrepreneurial failure: Statistical and psychological explanations," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(6), pages 1047-1064, June.
    2. Natalia Karelaia & Robin Hogarth, 2010. "The attraction of uncertainty: Interactions between skill and levels of uncertainty in market-entry games," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 141-166, October.
    3. repec:spr:manrev:v:68:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11301-018-0135-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Michaël Lainé, 2016. "The heterogeneity of animal spirits: a first taxonomy of entrepreneurs with regard to investment expectations," Post-Print hal-01744745, HAL.
    5. Z.V. Kambourova & F.C. Stam, 2016. "Entrepreneurs’ Overoptimism During The Early Life Course Of The Firm," Working Papers 16-14, Utrecht School of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    excess entry; fallible judgment; overconfidence; bounded rationality; entrepreneurship;

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship
    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ororsc:v:23:y:2012:i:6:p:1733-1747. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mirko Janc). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.