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Why Do Option Prices Predict Stock Returns? The Role of Price Pressure in the Stock Market

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  • Luis Goncalves-Pinto

    (School of Banking and Finance, University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales 2052, Australia; Department of Finance, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong)

  • Bruce D. Grundy

    (Department of Finance, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia)

  • Allaudeen Hameed

    (Department of Finance, National University of Singapore, Singapore 119245)

  • Thijs van der Heijden

    (Department of Finance, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia)

  • Yichao Zhu

    (Research School of Finance, Actuarial Studies and Statistics, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200, Australia)

Abstract

Stock and options markets can disagree about a stock’s value because of informed trading in options and/or price pressure in the stock. The predictability of stock returns based on this cross-market discrepancy in values is especially strong when accompanied by stock price pressure, and it does not depend on trading in options. We argue that option-implied prices provide an anchor for fundamental stock values that helps to distinguish stock price movements resulting from pressure versus news. Overall, our results are consistent with stock price pressure being the primary driver of the option price-based stock return predictability.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Goncalves-Pinto & Bruce D. Grundy & Allaudeen Hameed & Thijs van der Heijden & Yichao Zhu, 2020. "Why Do Option Prices Predict Stock Returns? The Role of Price Pressure in the Stock Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(9), pages 3903-3926, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:66:y:2020:i:9:p:3903-3926
    DOI: 10.287/mnsc.2019.3398
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    5. Chang‐Mo Kang & Donghyun Kim & Junyong Kim & Geul Lee, 2022. "Informed trading of out‐of‐the‐money options and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 247-279, June.
    6. Cao, Jie & Han, Bing & Song, Linjia & Zhan, Xintong, 2023. "Option price implied information and REIT returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 13-28.
    7. Xingguo Luo & Yuting Lin & Xiaoli Yu & Feng He, 2021. "How trading in commodity futures option markets impacts commodity futures prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(8), pages 1333-1347, August.
    8. Dmitriy Muravyev & Neil D. Pearson & Joshua M. Pollet, 2022. "Is There a Risk Premium in the Stock Lending Market? Evidence from Equity Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(3), pages 1787-1828, June.
    9. Xingguo Luo & Wenye Cai & Doojin Ryu, 2022. "Information contents of intraday SSE 50 ETF options trades," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 580-604, April.
    10. Khorram, Mehdi & Mo, Haitao & Sanger, Gary C., 2023. "Information flow and credit rating announcements," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    11. Mohrschladt, Hannes & Schneider, Judith C., 2021. "Option-implied skewness: Insights from ITM-options," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
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