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The Joint Cross Section of Stocks and Options

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Listed:
  • Byeong-Je An
  • Andrew Ang
  • Turan G. Bali
  • Nusret Cakici

Abstract

Stocks with large increases in call implied volatilities over the previous month tend to have high future returns while stocks with large increases in put implied volatilities over the previous month tend to have low future returns. Sorting stocks ranked into decile portfolios by past call implied volatilities produces spreads in average returns of approximately 1% per month, and the return differences persist up to six months. The cross section of stock returns also predicts option-implied volatilities, with stocks with high past returns tending to have call and put option contracts which exhibit increases in implied volatility over the next month, but with decreasing realized volatility. These predictability patterns are consistent with rational models of informed trading.

Suggested Citation

  • Byeong-Je An & Andrew Ang & Turan G. Bali & Nusret Cakici, 2013. "The Joint Cross Section of Stocks and Options," NBER Working Papers 19590, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19590
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Jian & Jiang, Fuwei & Liu, Yangshu & Tu, Jun, 2017. "International volatility risk and Chinese stock return predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 183-203.
    2. Qi-Wen Wang & Jian-Jun Shu, 2017. "Financial option insurance," Papers 1708.02180, arXiv.org.
    3. Chen, Zhuo & Lu, Andrea, 2017. "Slow diffusion of information and price momentum in stocks: Evidence from options markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 98-108.
    4. Atilgan, Yigit, 2014. "Volatility spreads and earnings announcement returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 205-215.
    5. Martin, Ian & Wagner, Christian, 2016. "What is the Expected Return on a Stock?," CEPR Discussion Papers 11608, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Ben Ammar, Semir, 2016. "Pricing of Catastrophe Risk and the Implied Volatility Smile," Working Papers on Finance 1617, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    7. Hao, (Grace) Qing, 2016. "Is there information leakage prior to share repurchase announcements? Evidence from daily options trading," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 79-101.
    8. Seo, Sung Won & Kim, Jun Sik, 2015. "The information content of option-implied information for volatility forecasting with investor sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 106-120.
    9. Vortelinos, Dimitrios I. & Lakshmi, Geeta, 2015. "Market risk of BRIC Eurobonds in the financial crisis period," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 295-310.
    10. Kaplanski, Guy & Levy, Haim, 2015. "Trading breaks and asymmetric information: The option markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 390-404.
    11. Kanne, Stefan & Korn, Olaf & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese, 2016. "Stock Illiquidity, option prices, and option returns," CFR Working Papers 16-08, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    12. Chen, Chien-Hua & Su, Xuan-Qi & Lin, Jun-Biao, 2016. "The role of information uncertainty in moving-average technical analysis: A study of individual stock-option issuance in Taiwan," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 263-272.
    13. Moll, Cliff R. & Huffman, Stephen P., 2016. "The incremental information content of innovations in implied idiosyncratic volatility," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 33-44.
    14. Feng, Shu & Zhang, Yi & Friesen, Geoffrey C., 2015. "The relationship between the option-implied volatility smile, stock returns and heterogeneous beliefs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 62-73.
    15. Aramonte, Sirio, 2014. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and the cross-section of option returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 25-49.

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    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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