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The option to stock volume ratio and future returns

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  • Johnson, Travis L.
  • So, Eric C.

Abstract

We examine the information content of option and equity volumes when trade direction is unobserved. In a multimarket asymmetric information model, equity short-sale costs result in a negative relation between relative option volume and future firm value. In our empirical tests, firms in the lowest decile of the option to stock volume ratio (O/S) outperform the highest decile by 0.34% per week (19.3% annualized). Our model and empirics both indicate that O/S is a stronger signal when short-sale costs are high or option leverage is low. O/S also predicts future firm-specific earnings news, consistent with O/S reflecting private information.

Suggested Citation

  • Johnson, Travis L. & So, Eric C., 2012. "The option to stock volume ratio and future returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 262-286.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:106:y:2012:i:2:p:262-286
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2012.05.008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Akbas, Ferhat & Meschke, Felix & Wintoki, M. Babajide, 2016. "Director networks and informed traders," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 1-23.
    2. Chen, Zhuo & Lu, Andrea, 2017. "Slow diffusion of information and price momentum in stocks: Evidence from options markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 98-108.
    3. Delisle, R. Jared & Lee, Bong Soo & Mauck, Nathan, 2012. "The dynamic relation between short sellers, option traders, and aggregate returns," MPRA Paper 42566, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. C. José García Martín & Begoña Herrero Piqueras & Ana María Ibáñez Escribano, 2016. "The informational role of thin options markets: Empirical evidence from the Spanish case," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 43(2 Year 20), pages 233-263, December.
    5. Chung, Kee H. & Park, Seongkyu “Gilbert” & Ryu, Doojin, 2016. "Trade duration, informed trading, and option moneyness," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 395-411.
    6. Vinay Patel, 2015. "Price Discovery in US and Australian Stock and Options Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 27, january-d.
    7. repec:eee:corfin:v:46:y:2017:i:c:p:34-50 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Lee, Yen-Hsien & Wang, David K., 2016. "Information content of investor trading behavior: Evidence from Taiwan index options market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 149-160.
    9. Blau, Benjamin M. & Nguyen, Nga & Whitby, Ryan J., 2014. "The information content of option ratios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 179-187.
    10. Augustin, Patrick & Brenner, Menachem & Grass, Gunnar & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2016. "How do insiders trade?," CFS Working Paper Series 541, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    11. Hsieh, Wen-liang G. & He, Huei-Ru, 2014. "Informed trading, trading strategies and the information content of trading volume: Evidence from the Taiwan index options market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 187-215.
    12. R. Jared DeLisle & Bong Soo Lee & Nathan Mauck, 2016. "The dynamic relation between options trading, short selling, and aggregate stock returns," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 645-671, October.
    13. Lin, Tse-Chun & Lu, Xiaolong, 2015. "Why do options prices predict stock returns? Evidence from analyst tipping," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 17-28.
    14. repec:eee:quaeco:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:143-157 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Kaplanski, Guy & Levy, Haim, 2015. "Trading breaks and asymmetric information: The option markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 390-404.
    16. Yubin Li & Chen Zhao & Zhaodong Zhong, 2016. "Migrate or not? The effects of regulation SHO on options trading activities," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 113-146, July.
    17. Hu, Jianfeng, 2014. "Does option trading convey stock price information?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 625-645.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Short-sale costs; Options; Trading volume; Return predictability;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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