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The Implied Truth Effect: Attaching Warnings to a Subset of Fake News Headlines Increases Perceived Accuracy of Headlines Without Warnings

Author

Listed:
  • Gordon Pennycook

    (Hill and Levene Schools of Business, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan S4S 0A2, Canada;)

  • Adam Bear

    (Department of Psychology, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138;)

  • Evan T. Collins

    (School of Medicine, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut 06510;)

  • David G. Rand

    (Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142; Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139; Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139)

Abstract

What can be done to combat political misinformation? One prominent intervention involves attaching warnings to headlines of news stories that have been disputed by third-party fact-checkers. Here we demonstrate a hitherto unappreciated potential consequence of such a warning: an implied truth effect , whereby false headlines that fail to get tagged are considered validated and thus are seen as more accurate. With a formal model, we demonstrate that Bayesian belief updating can lead to such an implied truth effect. In Study 1 ( n = 5,271 MTurkers), we find that although warnings do lead to a modest reduction in perceived accuracy of false headlines relative to a control condition (particularly for politically concordant headlines), we also observed the hypothesized implied truth effect: the presence of warnings caused untagged headlines to be seen as more accurate than in the control. In Study 2 ( n = 1,568 MTurkers), we find the same effects in the context of decisions about which headlines to consider sharing on social media. We also find that attaching verifications to some true headlines—which removes the ambiguity about whether untagged headlines have not been checked or have been verified—eliminates, and in fact slightly reverses, the implied truth effect. Together these results contest theories of motivated reasoning while identifying a potential challenge for the policy of using warning tags to fight misinformation—a challenge that is particularly concerning given that it is much easier to produce misinformation than it is to debunk it.

Suggested Citation

  • Gordon Pennycook & Adam Bear & Evan T. Collins & David G. Rand, 2020. "The Implied Truth Effect: Attaching Warnings to a Subset of Fake News Headlines Increases Perceived Accuracy of Headlines Without Warnings," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(11), pages 4944-4957, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:66:y:2020:i:11:p:4944-4957
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2019.3478
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    1. Gupta, Ashish & Li, Han & Farnoush, Alireza & Jiang, Wenting, 2022. "Understanding patterns of COVID infodemic: A systematic and pragmatic approach to curb fake news," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 670-683.
    2. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/27dls12b6d8aor7i6sipg9ie3g is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Alan C. Logan & Susan H. Berman & Brian M. Berman & Susan L. Prescott, 2021. "Healing Anthropocene Syndrome: Planetary Health Requires Remediation of the Toxic Post-Truth Environment," Challenges, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, January.
    4. Emeric Henry & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya & Sergei Guriev, 2022. "Checking and Sharing Alt-Facts," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 55-86, August.
    5. Chopra, Felix & Haaland, Ingar & Roth, Christopher, 2022. "Do people demand fact-checked news? Evidence from U.S. Democrats," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    6. Chopra, Felix & Haaland, Ingar & Roth, Christopher, 2021. "The Demand for FactChecking," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 563, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    7. repec:cup:judgdm:v:16:y:2021:i:2:p:484-504 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Cameron Martel & Mohsen Mosleh & David G. Rand, 2021. "You’re Definitely Wrong, Maybe: Correction Style Has Minimal Effect on Corrections of Misinformation Online," Media and Communication, Cogitatio Press, vol. 9(1), pages 120-133.
    9. Garrett Morrow & Briony Swire‐Thompson & Jessica Montgomery Polny & Matthew Kopec & John P. Wihbey, 2022. "The emerging science of content labeling: Contextualizing social media content moderation," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 73(10), pages 1365-1386, October.
    10. John M. Carey & Andrew M. Guess & Peter J. Loewen & Eric Merkley & Brendan Nyhan & Joseph B. Phillips & Jason Reifler, 2022. "The ephemeral effects of fact-checks on COVID-19 misperceptions in the United States, Great Britain and Canada," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(2), pages 236-243, February.
    11. Folco Panizza & Piero Ronzani & Tiffany Morisseau & Simone Mattavelli & Carlo Martini, 2023. "How do online users respond to crowdsourced fact-checking?," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, December.
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/27dls12b6d8aor7i6sipg9ie3g is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Patricia L. Moravec & Antino Kim & Alan R. Dennis & Randall K. Minas, 2022. "Do You Really Know if It’s True? How Asking Users to Rate Stories Affects Belief in Fake News on Social Media," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 33(3), pages 887-907, September.
    14. van Gils, Freek & Müller, Wieland & Prüfer, Jens, 2020. "Big Data and Democracy," Discussion Paper 2020-003, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center.
    15. Guy Aridor & Rafael Jiménez-Durán & Ro'ee Levy & Lena Song, 2024. "The Economics of Social Media," CESifo Working Paper Series 10934, CESifo.
    16. Lusher, Lester & Ruberg, Tim, 2023. "Killer Alerts? Public Health Warnings and Heat Stroke in Japan," IZA Discussion Papers 16562, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Greta Castellini & Mariarosaria Savarese & Guendalina Graffigna, 2021. "Online Fake News about Food: Self-Evaluation, Social Influence, and the Stages of Change Moderation," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-13, March.
    18. Kevin Matthe Caramancion & Yueqi Li & Elisabeth Dubois & Ellie Seoe Jung, 2022. "The Missing Case of Disinformation from the Cybersecurity Risk Continuum: A Comparative Assessment of Disinformation with Other Cyber Threats," Data, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-18, April.
    19. Sarah Spiekermann & Hanna Krasnova & Oliver Hinz & Annika Baumann & Alexander Benlian & Henner Gimpel & Irina Heimbach & Antonia Köster & Alexander Maedche & Björn Niehaves & Marten Risius & Manuel Tr, 2022. "Values and Ethics in Information Systems," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 64(2), pages 247-264, April.
    20. Robert M. Ross & David G. Rand & Gordon Pennycook, 2021. "Beyond “fake news†: Analytic thinking and the detection of false and hyperpartisan news headlines," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 16(2), pages 484-504, March.
    21. Gonzalo Cisternas & Jorge Vásquez, 2022. "Misinformation in Social Media: The Role of Verification Incentives," Staff Reports 1028, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

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