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Investment Decisions and Time Horizon: Risk Perception and Risk Behavior in Repeated Gambles

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  • Alexander Klos

    () (Lehrstuhl für Bankbetriebslehre, L 5,2, Universität Mannheim, 68131 Mannheim, Germany)

  • Elke U. Weber

    () (Center for Decision Sciences and Graduate School of Business, Columbia University, 3022 Broadway, 716 Uris Hall, New York, New York 10027)

  • Martin Weber

    () (Lehrstuhl für Bankbetriebslehre, L 5,2, Universität Mannheim, 68131 Mannheim, Germany, and CEPR, 90-98 Goswell Road, London EG1V 7RR, United Kingdom)

Abstract

To investigate the effect of time horizon on investment behavior, this paper reports the results of an experiment in which business graduate students provided certainty equivalents and judged various dimensions of the outcome distribution of simple gambles that were played either once or repeatedly for 5 or 50 times. Systematic mistakes in the ex-ante estimations of the distributions of outcomes after (independent) repeated plays were observed. Despite correctly realizing that outcome standard deviation increases with the number of plays, respondents showed evidence of Samuelson's (1963) fallacy of large numbers. Perceived risk judgments showed only low correlations with standard deviation estimates, but were instead related to the anticipated probability of a loss (which was overestimated), mean excess loss, and the coefficient of variation. Implications for future research and practical implications for financial advisors are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Klos & Elke U. Weber & Martin Weber, 2005. "Investment Decisions and Time Horizon: Risk Perception and Risk Behavior in Repeated Gambles," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(12), pages 1777-1790, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:51:y:2005:i:12:p:1777-1790
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1050.0429
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sarin, Rakesh K. & Weber, Martin, 1993. "Risk-value models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 135-149, October.
    2. Klos, Alexander, 2004. "The Investment Horizon and Dynamic Asset Allocation - Some Experimental Evidence," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-09, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
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    7. Langer, Thomas & Weber, Martin, 2005. "Myopic prospect theory vs. myopic loss aversion: how general is the phenomenon?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 25-38, January.
    8. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Steinhorst, Martin P. & Bahrs, Enno, 2011. "Die Analyse der Rationalität im Verhalten von Stakeholdern des Agribusiness anhand eines Experiments," 51st Annual Conference, Halle, Germany, September 28-30, 2011 114490, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    2. repec:jdm:journl:v:12:y:2017:i:4:p:382-395 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Sergio Sousa, 2010. "Small-scale changes in wealth and attitudes toward risk," Discussion Papers 2010-11, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
    4. Christine Kaufmann & Martin Weber & Emily Haisley, 2013. "The Role of Experience Sampling and Graphical Displays on One's Investment Risk Appetite," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(2), pages 323-340, July.
    5. Michael L. DeKay & Dan R. Schley & Seth A. Miller & Breann M. Erford & Jonghun Sun & Michael N. Karim & Mandy B. Lanyon, 2016. "The persistence of common-ratio effects in multiple-play decisions," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 11(4), pages 361-379, July.
    6. Sachse, Katharina & Jungermann, Helmut & Belting, Julia M., 2012. "Investment risk – The perspective of individual investors," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 437-447.
    7. Hoffmann Arvid O.I. & Pennings Joost M.E., 2008. "Shareholder Activism and the Role of Marketing: A Framework for Analyzing and Managing Investor Relations," Research Memorandum 007, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    8. Markus Glaser & Martin Weber, 2007. "Overconfidence and trading volume," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, Springer;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 32(1), pages 1-36, June.
    9. Lukas Menkhoff & Maik Schmeling & Ulrich Schmidt, 2010. "Are All Professional Investors Sophisticated?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11, pages 418-440, November.
    10. Ludwig Ensthaler & Olga Nottmeyer & Georg Weizsäcker & Christian Zankiewicz, 2013. "Hidden Skewness: On the Difficulty of Multiplicative Compounding under Random Shocks," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1337, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. José Antonio Robles-Zurita & José Luis Pinto-Prades, 2015. "Randomness beliefs and decisions on risky medical treatments," Working Papers 15.16, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
    12. Ludwig Ensthaler & Olga Nottmeyer & Georg Weizsäcker, 2010. "Hidden Skewness," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1043, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Jürgen Huber & Stefan Palan & Stefan Zeisberger, 2017. "Does Investor Risk Perception Drive Asset Prices in Markets? Experimental Evidence," Working Paper Series, Social and Economic Sciences 2017-05, Faculty of Social and Economic Sciences, Karl-Franzens-University Graz.
    14. Michael P. Keane & Susan Thorp, 2016. "Complex Decision Making: The Roles of Cognitive Limitations, Cognitive Decline and Ageing," Economics Papers 2016-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    15. Sergio Sousa, 2010. "Small-scale changes in wealth and attitudes toward risk," Discussion Papers 2010-11, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
    16. Martin Wallmeier, 2011. "Beyond payoff diagrams: how to present risk and return characteristics of structured products," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 25(3), pages 313-338, September.
    17. repec:eee:hapoch:v1_661 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:ris:isecst:0169 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Doerrenberg, Philipp & Duncan, Denvil & Zeppenfeld, Christopher, 2015. "Circumstantial risk: Impact of future tax evasion and labor supply opportunities on risk exposure," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 85-100.
    20. Christian Ehm & Christine Kaufmann & Martin Weber, 2014. "Volatility Inadaptability: Investors Care About Risk, but Cannot Cope with Volatility," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(4), pages 1387-1423.
    21. Alexander Klos, 2013. "Myopic loss aversion: Potential causes of replication failures," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 8(5), pages 617-629, September.
    22. Michael L. DeKay & John C. Hershey & Mark D. Spranca, & Peter A. Ubel & David A. Asch, 2006. "Are medical treatments for individuals and groups like single-play and multiple-play gambles?," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 1, pages 134-145, November.
    23. Alessandra Cillo & Enrico De Giorgi, 2017. "A New Approach to the Study of Editing of Repeated Lotteries," Working Papers 603, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    24. Washington Macías & Shirley Espinoza & Lisset Gutiérrez & Regina Rodríguez, 2015. "Students’ perceived risk and investment intention: the effect of brand equity," Management & Marketing, De Gruyter Open, vol. 10(3), pages 208-225, October.

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