Investment Decisions and Time Horizon: Risk Perception and Risk Behavior in Repeated Gambles
To investigate the effect of time horizon on investment behavior, this paper reports the results of an experiment in which business graduate students provided certainty equivalents and judged various dimensions of the outcome distribution of simple gambles that were played either once or repeatedly for 5 or 50 times. Systematic mistakes in the ex-ante estimations of the distributions of outcomes after (independent) repeated plays were observed. Despite correctly realizing that outcome standard deviation increases with the number of plays, respondents showed evidence of Samuelson's (1963) fallacy of large numbers. Perceived risk judgments showed only low correlations with standard deviation estimates, but were instead related to the anticipated probability of a loss (which was overestimated), mean excess loss, and the coefficient of variation. Implications for future research and practical implications for financial advisors are discussed.
Volume (Year): 51 (2005)
Issue (Month): 12 (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 7240 Parkway Drive, Suite 300, Hanover, MD 21076 USA|
Web page: http://www.informs.org/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Klos, Alexander & Weber, Martin, 2004.
"Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Nontradeable Income: An Experimental Analysis,"
Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications
04-01, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
- Alexander Klos & Martin Weber, 2006. "Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Non-Tradable Income: An Experimental Analysis," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7, pages 427-448, November.
- Klos, Alexander & Weber, Martin, 2004. "Portfolio choice in the presence of nontradeable income : an experimental analysis," Papers 04-01, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
- Elke U. Weber & Christopher Hsee, 1998. "Cross-Cultural Differences in Risk Perception, but Cross-Cultural Similarities in Attitudes Towards Perceived Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(9), pages 1205-1217, September.
- Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, 03.
- Klos, Alexander, 2004. "The Investment Horizon and Dynamic Asset Allocation - Some Experimental Evidence," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-09, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
- Donald L. Keefer & Samuel E. Bodily, 1983. "Three-Point Approximations for Continuous Random Variables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(5), pages 595-609, May.
- Elke U. Weber & Richard A. Milliman, 1997. "Perceived Risk Attitudes: Relating Risk Perception to Risky Choice," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(2), pages 123-144, February.
- Klos, Alexander, 2004. "The investment horizon and dynamic asset allocation--some experimental evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 167-170, November.
- Michael Kilka & Martin Weber, 2001.
"What Determines the Shape of the Probability Weighting Function Under Uncertainty?,"
INFORMS, vol. 47(12), pages 1712-1726, December.
- Kilka, Michael & Weber, Martin, 1998. "What Determines the Shape of the Probability Weighting Function under Uncertainty?," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 98-11, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
- Langer, Thomas & Weber, Martin, 2005. "Myopic prospect theory vs. myopic loss aversion: how general is the phenomenon?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 25-38, January.
- Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 2002. "How Much Is Investor Autonomy Worth?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1593-1616, 08.
- Sarin, Rakesh K. & Weber, Martin, 1993. "Risk-value models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 135-149, October.
- Shlomo Benartzi & Richard H. Thaler, 1999. "Risk Aversion or Myopia? Choices in Repeated Gambles and Retirement Investments," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(3), pages 364-381, March.
- Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:51:y:2005:i:12:p:1777-1790. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mirko Janc)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.