Bubbles and fads in the stock market: another look at the experience of the US
This paper considers a standard present-value equity price formula where the discount factor is driven by the real return on short-term public debt. We discuss a state-space formulation by which prices can be decomposed into fundamental and non-fundamental components. The model is estimated on annual US data. The stochastic discount factor explains part of the volatility in equity values, but it is not sufficient per se to exclude the occurrence of near-exponential bubbles in the price-dividend ratio. These disappear if the dividend is replaced by a broader measure of the income flow generated by the firms. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume (Year): 11 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/|
|Order Information:||Web: http://jws-edcv.wiley.com/jcatalog/JournalsCatalogOrder/JournalOrder?PRINT_ISSN=1076-9307|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Stephen F. Le Roy, 2004. "Rational Exuberance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 783-804, September.
- Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1980. "Market Fundamentals versus Price-Level Bubbles: The First Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 745-70, August.
- Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986.
"The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1142-51, December.
- James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 1462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations," Working papers 353, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Froot, Kenneth A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991.
"Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1189-214, December.
- Robert J. Shiller, 1980.
"Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?,"
NBER Working Papers
0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
- Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1990. "Symposium on Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 13-18, Spring.
- Charemza, Wojciech W. & Deadman, Derek F., 1995. "Speculative bubbles with stochastic explosive roots: The failure of unit root testing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 153-163, June.
- Granger, E.J. & Swanson, N.R., 1996.
"An introduction to stochastic Unit Root Processes,"
4-96-3, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Burmeister, Edwin & Wall, Kent D., 1982. "Kalman filtering estimation of unobserved rational expectations with an application to the German hyperinflation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 255-284, November.
- Diba, Behzad T & Grossman, Herschel I, 1988. "Explosive Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 520-30, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:11:y:2006:i:3:p:195-203. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.