IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ijc/ijcjou/y2025q1a6.html

Heterogeneous Expectations and the Business Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Tolga Özden

    (Bank of Canada)

Abstract

We analyze the empirical relevance of heterogeneous expectations and central bank credibility in a canonical New Keynesian model subject to the effective lower bound (ELB). Agents switch between an anchored rational expectations (RE) and an adaptive learning forecast rule, where the latter may result in a de-anchoring of inflation expectations. We estimate the model for the U.S. economy using aggregate macrodata and survey data on inflation expectations. We use the estimated model to examine the interaction between the risk of deflationary spirals and central bank credibility at the ELB. A loss of central bank credibility increases the probability of deflationary spirals, highlighting the importance of keeping inflation expectations anchored during periods of uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Tolga Özden, 2025. "Heterogeneous Expectations and the Business Cycle," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 21(1), pages 273-330, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2025:q:1:a:6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb25q1a6.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2016. "Implementing the zero lower bound in an estimated regime-switching DSGE model," Working Paper 2016/3, Norges Bank.
    2. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2009. "A New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1036-1051, May.
    3. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 113-172.
    4. Gianluca Benigno & Andrew Foerster & Christopher Otrok & Alessandro Rebucci, 2025. "Estimating macroeconomic models of financial crises: An endogenous regime‐switching approach," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(1), pages 1-47, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gino Cateau & Don Coletti & Annie Portelance, 2025. "From models to communications: strenghtening risk management in monetary policy at the Bank of Canada," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy decision-making and communication under high uncertainty, volume 127, pages 51-58, Bank for International Settlements.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tolga Özden, 2021. "Heterogeneous Expectations and the Business Cycle at the Effective Lower Bound," Working Papers 714, DNB.
    2. Kockerols, Thore & Kravik, Erling Motzfeldt & Mimir, Yasin, 2026. "Leaning against persistent financial cycles with occasional crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    3. Elton Beqiraj & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marco Di Pietro & Carolina Serpieri, 2020. "Bounded rationality and heterogeneous expectations: Euler versus anticipated-utility approach," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 130(3), pages 249-273, August.
    4. Gelain, Paolo & Iskrev, Nikolay & J. Lansing, Kevin & Mendicino, Caterina, 2019. "Inflation dynamics and adaptive expectations in an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 258-277.
    5. Zhou, Jing, 2022. "Collateral quality and house prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    6. Kulish, Mariano & Morley, James & Robinson, Tim, 2017. "Estimating DSGE models with zero interest rate policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 35-49.
    7. Luisa Corrado & Stefano Grassi & Aldo Paolillo, 2021. "Modelling and Estimating Large Macroeconomic Shocks During the Pandemic," CREATES Research Papers 2021-08, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    8. Chang, Yoosoon & Maih, Junior & Tan, Fei, 2021. "Origins of monetary policy shifts: A New approach to regime switching in DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. S. Bogan Aruoba & Pablo Cuba-Borda & Kenji Higa-Flores & Frank Schorfheide & Sergio Villalvazo, 2021. "Piecewise-Linear Approximations and Filtering for DSGE Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 41, pages 96-120, July.
    10. Leonid Serkov & Sergey Krasnykh, 2022. "Analysis of the external shocks impact on the behavior of agents with limited expectations: The case of Russian economy," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 67, pages 97-120.
    11. Leonid Serkov & Sergey Krasnykh, 2023. "The Specific Behavior of Economic Agents with Heterogeneous Expectations in the New Keynesian Model with Rigid Prices and Wages," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-17, February.
    12. Girstmair, Stefan, 2024. "The effect of new housing supply in structural models: a forecasting performance evaluation," Working Paper Series 2895, European Central Bank.
    13. Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2017. "Modelling Occasionally Binding Constraints Using Regime-Switching," Working Papers No 9/2017, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    14. Alejandro Steven Fonseca-Zendejas & Carmen Borrego-Salcido & Francisco Venegas-Martínez, 2025. "An Estimated DSGE Model Under the New Keynesian Framework for Mexico," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 66(2), pages 1297-1320, August.
    15. Luisa Corrado & Stefano Grassi & Aldo Paolillo, 2021. "Identifying Economic Shocks in a Rare Disaster Environment," CEIS Research Paper 517, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 18 Jul 2024.
    16. Adnan Haider Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 963-1008.
    17. Pablo Burriel & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-Ramírez, 2010. "MEDEA: a DSGE model for the Spanish economy," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 175-243, March.
    18. Vitek, Francis, 2006. "Measuring the Stance of Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," MPRA Paper 802, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Mădălin Viziniuc, 2017. "Potential Gains from Cooperation Between Monetary and Macroprudential Policies: The Case of an Emerging Economy," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(5), pages 420-452, September.
    20. Luca Benati & Paolo Surico, 2008. "Evolving U.S. Monetary Policy and The Decline of Inflation Predictability," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 634-646, 04-05.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2025:q:1:a:6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bank for International Settlements (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.ijcb.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.