IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ids/ijmnec/v2y2012i3p282-297.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting international technology transfer and international trade in Nigeria: a time series analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Olawumi Dele Awolusi

Abstract

The objective of this study was to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationships among the international factors and domestic investment, as well as, to assess the short-term impact of inward foreign direct investment (FDI), trade, domestic investment and economic growth on international technology transfer to Nigeria from 1970 to 2010. A multivariate cointegration technique developed by Johansen and Juselius (1990) was employed to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationships. The results of the analysis affirmed the existence of cointegrating vectors in the systems of this country, during the study period (Lee and Tan, 2006). The short-term impact of inward FDI, trade and domestic investment on international technology transfer to Nigeria was also tested via Granger causality test, based on vector error-correction model. The results of the test revealed a short-run causal effect either running unidirectionally or bidirectionally among the variables for the country. Finally, all the variables in the Nigerian systems were adjusting to equilibrium in the long run, with the exception of domestic investment (DI), which failed to do the adjustment in the long run. Policy implications were highlighted at the end of this report.

Suggested Citation

  • Olawumi Dele Awolusi, 2012. "Forecasting international technology transfer and international trade in Nigeria: a time series analysis," International Journal of Management and Network Economics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(3), pages 282-297.
  • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijmnec:v:2:y:2012:i:3:p:282-297
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=48515
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fosfuri, Andrea & Motta, Massimo & Ronde, Thomas, 2001. "Foreign direct investment and spillovers through workers' mobility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 205-222, February.
    2. Lloyd, P. J., 1996. "The role of foreign investment in the success of Asian industrialization," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 407-433.
    3. ibrahim, waheed & Omoniyi, Benjamin, 2011. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria: Political Factor Effects Revisited," MPRA Paper 59429, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.
    4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    5. Grossman, Gene M. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1995. "Technology and trade," Handbook of International Economics,in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1279-1337 Elsevier.
    6. Kamal Saggi, 2002. "Trade, Foreign Direct Investment, and International Technology Transfer: A Survey," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 17(2), pages 191-235, September.
    7. Edwin Mansfield & Anthony Romeo, 1980. "Technology Transfer to Overseas Subsidiaries by U. S.-Based Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 95(4), pages 737-750.
    8. Lemoine, Francoise & Unal-Kesenci, Deniz, 2004. "Assembly Trade and Technology Transfer: The Case of China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 829-850, May.
    9. Madsen, Jakob B., 2007. "Technology spillover through trade and TFP convergence: 135 years of evidence for the OECD countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 464-480, July.
    10. Akinlo, A. Enisan, 2004. "Foreign direct investment and growth in Nigeria: An empirical investigation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 627-639, July.
    11. Kohpaiboon, Archanun, 2002. "Foreign Trade Regime and FDI-Growth Nexus : A Case Study of Thailand," Departmental Working Papers 2002-05, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    12. Hoekman, Bernard M. & Maskus, Keith E. & Saggi, Kamal, 2005. "Transfer of technology to developing countries: Unilateral and multilateral policy options," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1587-1602, October.
    13. Johnson, Andreas, 2006. "The Effects of FDI Inflows on Host Country Economic Growth," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 58, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.
    14. Costa, Ionara & de Queiroz, Sergio Robles Reis, 2002. "Foreign direct investment and technological capabilities in Brazilian industry," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(8-9), pages 1431-1443, December.
    15. Subash Sasidharan & A. Ramanathan, 2007. "Foreign Direct Investment and spillovers: evidence from Indian manufacturing," International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 5-22.
    16. Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 1996. "Macroeconomic activity dynamics and Granger causality: New evidence from a small developing economy based on a vector error-correction modelling analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 407-426, July.
    17. Klaus E Meyer, 2004. "Perspectives on multinational enterprises in emerging economies," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 35(4), pages 259-276, July.
    18. David Deok-Ki Kim & Jung-Soo Seo, 2003. "Does FDI inflow crowd out domestic investment in Korea?," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 30(6), pages 605-622, October.
    19. Francisco Rodriguez & Dani Rodrik, 1999. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to Cross-National Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7081, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ids:ijmnec:v:2:y:2012:i:3:p:282-297. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Carmel O'Grady). General contact details of provider: http://www.inderscience.com/browse/index.php?journalID==259 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.