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A Physics Model for Analysis on Demographic Structures

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  • Wenjie Zhou

Abstract

Differing from statistics models for analysis on demographic structures, a physics model based on a set of assumptions is presented. The mortality probability function for a single person is derived to approach an approximation of analytic solutions for population evolution equations. This physics model has offered a kinetic method to forecast demographic structures and population evolution. Furthermore, the cause-and-effect relationship between demographic structures and nature or social forces can be discovered through higher-order solutions in this theory. Indeed, the life expectancy of an individual person can be possibly predicted as well. As an example, the calculated results on major parameters, such as, population structures, population size evolution, survival ratios and life expectancy at birth, show out well matching between zero-order approximations by this model and the real data from China census in the year of 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Wenjie Zhou, 2017. "A Physics Model for Analysis on Demographic Structures," Modern Applied Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(11), pages 1-60, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:masjnl:v:11:y:2017:i:11:p:60
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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