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An Analysis of the Relationship between Crude Oil Prices, Current Account Deficit and Exchange Rates: Turkish Experiment

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  • ?agatay Basarir
  • Mehmet Er?akar

Abstract

In this study, the effect of raw oil prices and exchange rates on current account deficit of the Turkish Economy has been examined by investigating the short and long run relationship between the current account deficit of the Turkish Economy, raw oil prices (Brent oil prices) and exchange rates (USD/TRY). The Monthly Data between December 1991 and January 2016 were used in the study. The relationships between the variables were tested with the VAR (Vector Auto Regressive) Model. None of the series was found stable after the unit root tests, but it was observed that all the variables became stable when their first differences were taken. Firstly, an unrestricted VAR model was built to determine the long term relationship between the variables. After the long term relationship was found between the variables, the VECM (Vector Error Correction) Model was estimated in order to determine the short term relationship. A mutual granger causality relationship is detected between crude oil prices and current account deficit variables. No causality relationship is found between the other variables.

Suggested Citation

  • ?agatay Basarir & Mehmet Er?akar, 2016. "An Analysis of the Relationship between Crude Oil Prices, Current Account Deficit and Exchange Rates: Turkish Experiment," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(11), pages 1-48, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:ijefaa:v:8:y:2016:i:11:p:48
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brooks,Chris, 2008. "RATS Handbook to Accompany Introductory Econometrics for Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521896955.
    2. Mr. Tobias N. Rasmussen & Agustin Roitman, 2011. "Oil Shocks in a Global Perspective: Are they Really That Bad?," IMF Working Papers 2011/194, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Özlale, Ümit & Pekkurnaz, Didem, 2010. "Oil prices and current account: A structural analysis for the Turkish economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4489-4496, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zuriyati Ahmad & Nor Aziela Jafre & Wan Norsyakila Wan Kamarudin, 2023. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Current Account Deficit in ASEAN Countries," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 13(4), pages 216-226, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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