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La sostenibilidad de la deuda externa en economías emergentes

  • Jorge Blázquez-Lidoy


    (Servicio de Estudios BBVA)

  • Luciana Taft


    (Servicio de Estudios BBVA)

En este trabajo se desarrolla un indicador de sostenibilidad de la deuda externa y se aplica a un conjunto amplio de países emergentes. Los resultados del modelo teórico indican que el tipo de cambio real juega un papel fundamental para garantizar la sostenibilidad de la deuda. Cuando se aplica el modelo a las economías emergentes se distinguen tres tipos de países: los que no tienen problemas de sostenibilidad. Los países que presentan problemas potenciales de sostenibilidad, pero que pueden ser solventados con un ajuste del tipo de cambio real. Y finalmente, países cuya deuda es insostenible.

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Article provided by IEF in its journal Hacienda Pública Española/Revista de Economía Pública.

Volume (Year): 167 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 157-183

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Handle: RePEc:hpe:journl:y:2003:v:167:i:4:p:157-183
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  1. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E, 1991. "Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 206-23, May.
  2. Morris Goldstein, 2003. "Debt Sustainability, Brazil, and the IMF," Working Paper Series WP03-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-17, October.
  5. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
  6. Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-45, July.
  7. Ashok Vir Bhatia, 2002. "Sovereign Credit Ratings Methodology: An Evaluation," IMF Working Papers 02/170, International Monetary Fund.
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