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The Causal Relationship between Urbanization, Economic Growth and Water Use Change in Provincial China

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  • Chao Bao

    (Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

  • Dongmei He

    (Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

Abstract

The relationship between urbanization, economic growth, and water use change is one of the key issues for China’s sustainable development, as rapid urbanization and continuous economic growth are accompanied by a steady water stress. Thus, we applied a cointegration test and a VECM (vector error correction model) Granger causality test to investigate the causal relationship between the urbanization level, the economic development level, and the total water use in China and its 31 provincial administrative regions during 1997–2013. Results show that the three indicators have a long-run equilibrium relationship in most provincial administrative regions in China. However, the short-run effects and Granger causal relationship are insignificant for China and most provincial administrative regions. Therefore, that an idea such as urbanization as the engine or major driving force of economic growth, and that China’s urbanization and economic growth will bring a water crisis and will be strongly constrained by water resources, might be properly weakened. Targeted and relatively separate policies should be emphasized more for the coordinated development of China’s urbanization, economy, and water resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Chao Bao & Dongmei He, 2015. "The Causal Relationship between Urbanization, Economic Growth and Water Use Change in Provincial China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(12), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:7:y:2015:i:12:p:15803-16085:d:59907
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Mingguang Tu & Futao Wang & Yi Zhou & Shixin Wang, 2016. "Gridded Water Resource Distribution Simulation for China Based on Third-Order Basin Data from 2002," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-14, December.
    3. Dan-dan Zhang & Ju-qin Shen & Fu-hua Sun, 2022. "Water Resources Liability Measurement and the Driving Factors of Water Resources Liability Intensity," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(5), pages 1553-1569, March.
    4. Xinkui Wang & Zengchuan Dong & Wei Xu & Yun Luo & Tao Zhou & Wenzhuo Wang, 2019. "Study on Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Coordinated Development Degree among Regional Water Resources, Social Economy, and Ecological Environment Systems," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-20, October.

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